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Leinster vs Bath Rugby Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 18/01/2025

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Leinster vs Bath Rugby Preview

Leinster welcomes Bath to the Aviva Stadium on January 18th at 5:30 pm with qualification on the line for the English side. The hosts have already confirmed a spot in the knockout stages but will want to finish top of the pool on maximum points.

Bath Rugby has been excellent in the Premiership this season but is yet to shine in Europe. Can they finally get the ball rolling at the Aviva, or will Leinster show the levels and continue their 100% record?

Leinster vs Bath Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats

These sides last met competitively in 2021, during the European Rugby Champions Cup. Leinster dominated Bath at the Aviva Stadium, scoring three tries within the opening 20 minutes. Bath only found a single score at the end of either half. 

Jamison Gibson-Park scored a brace with six different scorers combining to see off the English side in a 45-20 victory. Orlando Bailey was accurate with his kicking for Bath, but that was the only positive to take from their performance after Leinster played them off the park. The Irish province has dominated Bath for most of their recent meetings. They have nine victories over the English side in their last 10 games. 

It has been a tale of two competitions for Bath this season. They have been excellent in the Premiership, sitting at the top of the table with 41 points. That puts them six points clear of second-placed Bristol with a far superior points difference of 156. The next best is 46. They have been unstoppable when playing domestically. However, the European Rugby Champions Cup offers a unique challenge and so far they have underwhelmed.

Bath has seven points in Pool 2 after one win and two losses, picking up three bonus points. They sit precariously in third heading into their final group game. The English side finally picked up a win in the competition in their last outing, seeing off Clermont Auvergne. An excellent performance from Finn Russell helped them claim a valuable bonus point victory at The Recreation Ground.

Tom de Glanville put Bath in front with a try early on before Russell started and finished the move that doubled their lead. Clermont replied with a try of their own, but a red card for Giorgi Akhaladze swung the momentum back to Bath. They scored their third try two minutes later when Joe Cokanasiga finished yet another move started by Russell. Clermont scored just before the break to reduce the deficit to one score.

Thomas Du Toit scored in the 49th and 57th minute as Bath pulled away in the second half. Clermont scored a consolation in the 62nd minute, but Ollie Lawrence added insult to injury with sixth and final try in the 72nd minute to finish the game 40-21. Russell finished the game with 15 points overall.

Leinster has been arguably the best team in Europe so far this season. They are dominating the United Rugby Championship, 10 points clear at the top of the table, having won all nine games. The four-time European Champions have been equally dominant in the Champions Cup, winning all three games and sitting at the top of Pool 2. They have already confirmed qualification through to the knockout stages.

Leinster most recently played ERCC rivals La Rochelle at Stade Marcel Deflandre. A tightly contested game that saw just one try apiece came down to a missed conversion. Leinster did just enough to continue their 100% record in all competitions, leaving coastal France with a 16-14 victory. That confirmed their place in the round of 16.

The French side started strongly after Antoine Hastoy kicked a penalty in the third minute. Sam Prendergast responded to level the game for Leinster eight minutes later. La Rochelle then piled on the pressure, but the Irishmen stood firm to keep them out of the try zone and hold them to no more than a 26th-minute penalty. Leinster responded quickly once again with Joe McCarthy scoring the first try of the day on the half-hour mark. 

Two second-half penalties came for Leinster while La Rochelle scored a third for themselves. Dillyn Leyds scored their only try of the day and gave them a chance to level the match. However, Hastoy couldn’t find the conversion. Leinster held firm for the rest of the half and saw out a win.

Leinster vs Bath Rugby Predictions

Bath has been in excellent form in the Premiership and looks a solid favourite to win the Grand Final. They are pulling away at the top of the table and a home draw in the playoffs seems a certainty. However, they cannot translate that form into the European Rugby Champions Cup. They now face a daunting challenge against the best-performing team in Europe.

Leinster have been excellent in 2024/25. They have won every game in all competitions. While not necessarily trampling over teams, Leinster have put in classy and professional performances across the board. Put simply, they just know how to win. The Irish side is among the favourites to win the competition and can continue their 100% record here. Our rugby prediction is for Leinster to win at the Aviva Stadium.

Leinster welcomed back several key players to their squad after recovering from injuries. That has made them an even stronger outfit than they already were. Doctors did not clear Hugo Keenan to play against La Rochelle, but he is expected back for this game. Add in the returns of Tadhg Furlong and Jack Conan and this Leinster squad has depth outweighing Bath.

There have been some knee-jerk reactions from Leinster’s last game with calls of ‘alarm bells’ following their performance, despite the win. However, any rugby fan knows La Rochelle has been a bogey team in recent years. Leinster showed grit to see the win over the line, something befitting of champions. Bath will be up for this game knowing qualification could be on the line, but Leinster have the steely resolve to overcome the English side.

Sam Prendergast has been a revelation for Leinster this season. The 21-year-old has been drawing comparisons to one of the best Irish rugby players of all time, Johnny Sexton, with his spectacular performances. His kicking has been accurate all season and the Kildare lad looks one of the finest prospects in the country right now. His performance will be key in this fixture.

Bath will need Fin Russell at his best for this game as he will be key to any success for his side. He is the leading scorer in the Premiership and carried Bath in their last European outing. The team will rely heavily on Russell, one of the more experienced players in this fixture, and Leinster will want to neutralize him.

Leinster vs Bath Rugby Betting Tips

Leinster are runaway favourites for this game. They have dominated every competition they have played this season and are yet to lose a game. Bath have been strong in the Premiership, but have struggled to carry that form to Europe. However, a bet on Leinster is worth 1/16 with our online bookmaker. There is little value with a €10 stake returning just €0.60. 

Bath is worth 15/2 for anyone betting on Rugby Union. This is as tough a game as they will face in the group stage. However, with qualification on the line, we will see an incredibly determined Bath side. If you think the Premiership leaders can pull off the upset, a €10 stake returns €75.

Handicap

Leinster have not necessarily blown away every team they have played in the European Rugby Champions Cup. They defeated Clermont and La Rochelle by eight and two points, respectively. Bath have lost twice by no more than four points and crushed Clermont by 19. The handicap is 17.5 points for anyone betting on the European Rugby Champions Cup. We think Bath can cover that number. If you want to extend those odds, we like a bet on Bath with a +11.5 handicap at 9/5. They have not lost by a margin wider than that since January last year. 

Point Scorers

Fin Russell has been in tremendous form for Bath this season. He leads their scoring charts, notching 99 points in the Premiership alone. That’s an average of just under 10 points per game. He secured 15 for his side the last time they played. This game is against much stronger opposition, but we still think his quality can shine through and he is Bath’s main scoring threat. Bet on the Scottish international to score 10+ points in the game.

Leinster Team News

Dan Sheehan and James Lowe have stepped up their recovery from injury. Sheehan injured his ACL while on Ireland duty in South Africa last July. Lowe has been working to overcome a calf issue. Both are in contention to appear in this game on Saturday. There are otherwise no injury updates and Leinster goes in with a strong squad.

Bath Team News

Will Muir and Guy Pepper will miss the rest of January as they begin rehabilitation from injuries sustained against Northampton Saints. Sam Underhill will also be out for an extended period after suffering an ankle injury in the same game. Cam Redpath is being monitored after a leg injury against Saracens in round nine of the Premiership. He sat out the Clermont game and won’t be rushed back to face Leinster.

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