Leinster vs Glasgow Warriors Preview
Leinster welcomes URC league rivals Glasgow Warriors to the Aviva Stadium on April 11th at 8:00 pm. The sides meet in the quarter-final of the European Rugby Champions Cup. This is a battle of first versus second, with table toppers Leinster sitting one spot above Glasgow in the United Rugby Championship.
Both teams made light work of Premiership opposition in their Round of 16 games and head into the quarter-finals in good spirits. Can Leinster maintain dominance in Europe, or will Glasgow stop them from reaching their fourth consecutive final?
Leinster vs Glasgow Warriors Predictions
One of our best rugby predictions this week is for Leinster to win and progress into the semifinals. They come into this match with a reputation as one of the most dominant teams in European rugby. With a blend of the best Irish rugby players and some rising stars, Leinster have been consistently excellent in the ERCC. They finished top of their pool with a powerful attacking game and a rock-solid defence. They have not lost a game in this tournament so far and have just one defeat in all competitions.
Leinster’s strategy will be to control possession and territory, using their forward pack to dominate the set piece and generate quick ball. Once they secure quick ruck ball, their backs will look to exploit any gaps in the Glasgow defence. By pinning Glasgow back and managing the game through kicking, they can starve the Warriors of attacking opportunities and clean up any breaks with their excellent defence.
In the last 3 matches Leinster have used ~50 different players.
Tries scored against them in open play?
0.#Master pic.twitter.com/rCqgmFbmPv
— A-P (@rugby_ap) April 5, 2025
Set pieces will also be important in this game. Leinster’s scrums, lineout, and general set-piece play are typically superior to most European sides. This gives them a platform to build attacks and squeeze opponents into mistakes.
The Warriors’ attack has been the lynchpin of their form this season. They are the top scorers in the United Rugby Championship with 423 points. Glasgow will look to move the ball wide at any given opportunity. The Warriors need to stretch Leinster’s defensive line and exploit any space. They will want to keep the game fast and open, with their powerful ball carriers aiming to get over the gain line and create attacking platforms for their backs. If Glasgow can disrupt Leinster’s breakdowns and force turnovers, they may have a chance of stealing possession and shifting the momentum of the match.
However, they face the best defence in Europe. Leinster has allowed just 54 points in the ERCC and 194 in the URC, fewer than any other side. They shut out the Harlequins last week to further prove their defensive dominance. Glasgow has been potent in attack, but this Leinster defence is one of the best we have seen in years. They will keep the Warriors quiet on the attacking front and make the most of their forays forward to win this game.
We must not underestimate Glasgow’s flair and speed. However, the Irish side is the clear favourite. Leinster’s experience and tactical approach should see them advance to the semi-finals. Glasgow will probably push them to their limits, and this will be the Dubliners’ toughest game so far. However, Leinster has already proven to be one of, if not the best, teams in Europe this season, and they should progress here.
Players To Watch
- Caelan Doris (Number 8, Leinster): Caelan Doris has redefined one of the toughest rugby positions and emerged as one of the most dynamic back-row forwards in the world. His work rate, tackling ability, and ball-carrying skills will be key to driving Leinster’s forward momentum and breaking Glasgow’s defensive line. The Ireland captain is the heartbeat of this Leinster side and is integral to their success.
- Johnny Matthews (Hooker, Glasgow Warriors): Johnny Matthews has been incredibly important to one of the best attacks in Europe this season. He is the top try scorer in the URC with eight. His powerful carries have been integral in getting Glasgow up the field. Matthews is no stranger to the big occasions in European Rugby and will know exactly how long a rugby game is. His nous will be equally important to Glasgow’s set-piece play.
Leinster vs Glasgow Warriors Betting Tips
- Full-Time Result – Leinster to win: Leinster have lost just one game this season and will enter this game as the favourites with our online betting site. They are the current favourites to lift the ERCC trophy. A home tie in the quarter-final should see them through to the semis. Bet on Leinster to win this game.
- Full-Time Result – Glasgow to win: While we predict the Irish giants will come out on top in this game, there is value in looking at the underdog. The Warriors have been strong in all competitions and sit second in the URC, one place below Leinster. A bet on Glasgow is worth 3/1 if you think they can cause the upset.
- Handicap – Glasgow to cover: The handicap betting line is 15.5 for this game. Leinster should win this game, but the Warriors are more than good enough to keep it tight. Their attack can keep them in touch, and they have only lost one game by a margin of 15 or more this season. Bet on Glasgow to cover +15.5, worth 4/5.
- Winning Margin – Leinster by 8-14 points: Leinster have been excellent on both sides of the ball this season. Glasgow is an excellent side, but Leo Cullen’s men should keep them at arm’s length for most of the game. They will win this game by more than a try, but not much more than that. A bet on Leinster to win by 8-14 points is worth 18/5 for anyone betting on the ERCC.
Leinster vs Glasgow Warriors Head-To-Head and Key Stats
These sides have not met since October 2023 in the early stages of the URC last season. The Warriors put on an excellent performance to send Leinster packing after a 45-23 victory at Scotstoun Stadium. The Warriors scored seven tries, with Josh McKay, Sebastian Cancelliere, Huw Jones, Angus Fraser, George Horne, and Johnny Matthews crossing the line, along with a penalty try.
Leinster narrowed the gap in the second half with a try from Lee Barron, but Glasgow responded with a spectacular try from Horne and a crucial turnover from Matthews. Despite a late score from Leinster, Matthews sealed the victory with another try before a penalty try wrapped up the game. The Warriors secured their first win over Leinster since 2021, thrilling their home crowd with a 43-25 triumph.
Leinster last played on April 5th in a European Champions Cup knockout clash with Harlequins. The competition favourites made light work of the Premiership side, brushing them aside in a breathtaking 62-0 victory. Quins had the early possession, with Leigh Halfpenny’s long-range penalty falling short and a driving maul held up by Leinster’s defence. It didn’t last long, and after 15 minutes, Leinster found their rhythm. Sam Prendergast crashed over for the opening try, followed by Joe McCarthy’s score to extend their lead to 12-0.
Leinster added a third try before halftime through Jamie Osborne, making it 19-0. The second half saw more Leinster dominance. Josh van der Flier and Dan Sheehan powered over from mauls, and Gary Ringrose added another try. A penalty try was the next score before James Lowe bagged a late double and Ross Byrne added another, securing a resounding 62-0 win for the home side.
The Glasgow Warriors also put on a strong performance in their Round of 16 game, sending Leicester crashing out after a 43-19 win. Leicester took an early lead through Olly Cracknell’s try, but Glasgow responded with Henco Venter and Sione Vailanu crossing for a 17-5 halftime lead. Vailanu added his second shortly after the break, and quick-fire tries from Adam Hastings and George Horne put Glasgow out of sight.
Leicester briefly threatened with back-to-back tries, but Glasgow’s power proved too much. Venter completed his brace to seal the victory and ensure Glasgow’s dominant 45-19 win. Glasgow’s attacking flair was again on show, and Leicester’s defence never had an answer.
Leinster Key Stats
Leinster have been the best team in the URC this season, and that has translated to the ERCC. Leo Cullen’s men have not lost a game in Europe and only dropped one in the league. They are favourites to win the double, and it is becoming increasingly tricky to doubt the Dubliners.
- 1st in the URC with a 13-0-1 record
- Undefeated in the Champions Cup this season
- 194 points conceded in the URC (Best defensive record)
- 54 points conceded in the ERCC (Best defensive record)
- 916 passes completed in the ERCC (Most in competition)
- 758 carries in the ERCC (2nd most in competition)
Glasgow Warriors Key Stats
Glasgow has enjoyed a successful season so far and looks on course for a lengthy run in the knockout stages of the URC. They reached the ERCC Round of 16 after finishing second in their pool. The Warriors are outsiders for the competition, but that may suit them down to the ground.
- 2nd in the URC with a 10-0-4 record
- 423 points scored in the URC (Best attacking record)
- 83% tackle success in the ERCC (Best in competition)
- 773 carries in the ERCC (Most in competition)
- 48 turnovers won in the ERCC (2nd most in competition)
- 859 passes completed in the ERCC (2nd most in competition)
