Leinster Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Preview
The new year starts with a bang next Monday, as an all-Irish clash sees Leinster take on Ulster in week nine of the United Rugby Championship. With these two sides first playing way back in 1875, it will be the 110th chapter of this storied rivalry. Plus, is there a better way to cure a New Year’s Day hangover? Leinster hosts this fixture, with the match taking place at the Royal Dublin Society Arena in Dublin at 6:15 PM.
Both sides come into this clash hungry for a win but for very different reasons. Leinster is flying high, sitting atop the URC table. They will be eager to pick up another win over their Irish rivals to solidify their grasp on the top spot. Ulster faces a mid-table log jam, with a win pushing them further into the top eight, and a loss likely seeing them fall out of the top half.
Leinster Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Across their 109 meetings so far, it’s Leinster who has asserted themselves as the more dominant side. The Dublin-based team has picked up 67 wins compared to Ulster’s 36, with six draws playing out over the past 148 years. In their most recent rugby match, Leinster defeated Ulster 30-15 in the 2022-23 Champions Cup. Played in April this year, the clash saw Ross Bryne kick 15 points for Leinster, keeping his side’s nose in front for the duration of the contest.
Before that, the two teams met in week nine of the 2022-23 United Rugby Championship. The clash was an entertaining, high-scoring affair, with Leinster prevailing 38-29. While the nine-point margin may have seemed comfortable, it was anything but for Leinster. Ulster raced out to a 22-3 lead after 34 minutes. A Gary Ringrose double helped pull the home side back into contention in a powerful second-half performance.
Attack Stats
Leinster is well ahead of Ulster in attack, with the club sitting second overall in the competition for offence. Ulster has only scored 175 points compared to Leinster’s 227. The home side has gained 3,051 meters across their seven games and made 58 clean breaks. That’s 22 more than Ulster’s 36.
Defence Stats
The opposite is true for defence. Ulster is stronger than Leinster in this aspect of the game. The Belfast-based side’s 90% tackle success puts them fourth in the league, compared to Leinster’s 86%, which is 11th in the competition. Ulster has also made 226 more tackles than Leinster while missing 13 less. However, Leinster holds the edge in turnovers, making 50 across the URC so far while Ulster has only picked up 37.
Set Piece Stats
Statistically, Ulster has one of the worst line-outs of any side this season, losing 18 and succeeding only 78% of the time on their throw. Leinster is better with an 85% success rate, but some way off the best in the division this year. Scrum penalties are another big differentiator between the two sides. Leinster won twice as many across the first seven games of the season.
Discipline Stats
Little separates the two sides in terms of discipline, with Leinster conceding three yellow cards to date and Ulster four. Both have 70 penalties against them, with a similar number at scrums and line-outs.
Leinster Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Predictions
It may be the oldest matchup in Irish rugby, but we say the outcome is going to be pretty clear-cut in this clash. Leinster has better results, better stats and a stronger squad than Ulster. They should take this opportunity to drive home their advantage at the top of the table. That makes betting on the United Rugby Championship straightforward this round.
Form-wise, Ulster’s confidence will be high after executing an impressive 31-15 thumping of top French side Racing 92 in the European Champions Cup. Before this, things had been patchy for the club, with three losses in a row across all competitions. A real shock considering they began the URC with a 4-1 record. Leinster is also heading into this one hot, having won eight matches on the bounce across the URC and ECC. They responded strongly after their week one loss against Glasgow in October. However, they’ve been winning ugly. Each of their last four wins came by narrow margins. The last big performance from Leinster was in mid-November when they put 54 points on the Scarletts and 33 points on the Dragons in consecutive weeks.
Expect Leinster to punish Ulster’s poor set piece this season and use their dominance as a platform to pick up both points and territory across the match. With the likely return of Tadhg Furlong, Leinster’s scrum and line-out are already superior to Ulster’s. Plenty of steals and penalties here, combined with Leinster’s healthy line-break rate, should see the home side get across the line.
Leinster Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Betting Tips
There are plenty of indicators available to narrow down the best bets to make. Besides wagering on Leinster to win outright, using the betting odds on markets such as the winning margin, try scorers, and total points is an excellent idea ahead of this clash.
In each of their past four matches, Leinster has won by ten points or fewer. Despite being top of the table, their wins in recent weeks have been far from dominant. Looking at the history of matches between Leinster and Ulster, ten points or fewer have settled five of the past six fixtures between the two. All signs are pointing towards this being a close encounter. Bet on this one to be a Leinster win by one to 12 points.
While this should be a close match, we also expect it to be relatively low-scoring. Yes, Leinster has an excellent attack, but Ulster has a strong defence. The two should neutralise each other to an extent, leading to a close scoreline once the referee blows the final whistle. Again, five of the past six clashes between these two clubs have had less than 45 points scored. This would make an excellent bet should the bookies offer it.
A great way to earn a high return betting on rugby is by wagering on whether a player will score a try. James Lowe has been a prolific try scorer for both Leinster and Ireland over the past few years. This time last year, he picked up a try in the URC clash between Leinster and Ulster. Considering that he’s been on the sidelines for Leinster recently, bookies will offer higher-than-usual odds for him to score. There’s every chance that Lowe will make a fast return from injury with a try against Ulster to kick off the new year.
Another betting market that can be lucrative is live betting. Leinster has classically been a very strong second-half team, as evidenced by their impressive comeback from 22-3 down against Ulster last year. Should the home side fall behind at any stage, this will be an excellent opportunity to place a bet on Leinster to execute a comeback. Not only is it a good chance of occurring based on what we know about Leinster’s track record of finishing powerfully, but it will also produce a handy return if you time the bet well.
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Leinster Rugby Team News & Lineups
The big question ahead of Leinster’s clash with Ulster is whether Irish internationals Tadhg Furlong and James Lowe will be back from injury and ready to play this fixture. Given that Leo Cullen stated last week that Furlong is “not a million miles away”, we say that the burly tight-head will be back for this one, along with Lowe as well. That will give Leinster a tremendous boost.
- Leinster Predicted Lineup: A. Porter, D. Sheehan, T. Furlong, J. Jenkins, J. Ryan, R. Baird, J. van der Flier, C. Doris, J. Gibson-Park, C. Frawley, J. Lowe, R. Henshaw, G. Ringrose, J. Larmour, and H. Keenan.
Ulster Rugby Team News & Lineups
With this fixture still a way out, it’s tough to pinpoint the exact starting lineup that Ulster will go with. Billy Burns and Rob Herring both have question marks over their participation with the former shaking off a concussion and the latter twisting his ankle against Racing 92. Expect Kitshoff to move back into the starting 15, after returning from the bench against Connacht in week eight.
- Ulster Predicted Lineup: S. Kitshoff, T. Stewart, A. Warwick, A. O’Connor, I. Henderson, D. Ewers, N. Timoney, M. Rea, J. Cooney, J. Flannery, J. Stockdale, S. McCloskey, J. Hume, R. Baloucoune, and M. Lowry.
