Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 15/11/2025

Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Preview

Carlos Prates and Leon Edwards kick off an exciting night of welterweight action at UFC 322 on Saturday night. Former champion Edwards is fighting to stop a three-fight slide after a pair of losses to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady.

Prates has been one of the most dangerous fighters in the promotion since joining the UFC and is on the hunt for a future title fight. Can he climb up the rankings with another highlight-reel victory, or will Edwards stop a hype train and begin his journey back to a title shot?

Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Predictions

Fight prediction: Prates to win via KO/TKO

One of our most intriguing MMA predictions this week is for Carlos Prates to defeat Leon Edwards in a welterweight clash that could shake up the division. While Edwards has long been regarded as one of the most technically complete fighters at 170 pounds, Prates enters this matchup with momentum, confidence, and a skill set tailor-made to challenge the reigning hierarchy. Our UFC predictions see Prates’ explosiveness, power, and fearless approach tipping the scales in his favour on fight night.

Carlos Prates has shown in recent fights that he is dangerous from the very first bell. The Brazilian is incredibly powerful, aggressive and fast. He is excellent at creating openings and wastes no time in doing so. That is in stark contrast to Leon Edwards, who typically controls the pace and picks apart opponents over the course of several rounds. Prates’ ability to force action and apply pressure early could be exactly what is needed to disrupt Edwards’ rhythm and take the fight into his own hands.

A major factor will be how well Prates can prevent Edwards from settling into his usual game. Edwards is excellent at managing distance, countering, and methodically chipping away at his opponents, but when he is forced to fight in tight spaces and under constant pressure, he is less comfortable. Prates will focus on closing the distance, remaining aggressive, and mixing his attacks to keep Edwards guessing. The opening round could prove decisive. If Prates lands clean shots and sets the pace early, he can dictate the fight and put Edwards on the back foot from the start.

Prates is not just a power striker. His timing is sharp, his striking is precise, and he has enough wrestling in his arsenal to keep Edwards cautious. This combination makes him unpredictable. He can pressure, scramble, and keep moving without giving Edwards a clear pattern to exploit. Across five rounds, that constant threat could gradually wear Edwards down, giving Prates the edge in both strategy and execution.

That said, Edwards should not be underestimated. As a former champion, he has faced the very best in the division and emerged victorious at the highest level. He is supremely skilled, with a sharp striking game, excellent defensive awareness, and a calm, patient approach that allows him to adapt mid-fight. Even against aggressive opponents, Edwards can read the fight, counter effectively, and exploit openings, meaning Prates will have to be precise and consistent to stay ahead. One lapse in concentration could be enough for Edwards to turn the tide.

We can expect a fast, intense contest. Prates will push forward, probe for openings, and force Edwards into uncomfortable positions. Edwards will rely on his patience and technical skill, but Prates’ speed, aggression, and finishing instincts make him a serious danger. If he maintains pressure and capitalises on opportunities, he could walk away with either a late stoppage or a unanimous decision.

Ultimately, this fight represents a significant opportunity for Prates to demonstrate that he belongs among the division’s elite. He has the skills, confidence, and momentum to make a statement. If he executes his game plan effectively, keeps Edwards on the back foot, and seizes the crucial moments, Carlos Prates could secure one of the most important victories of his career, cementing himself as a serious contender in the welterweight division.

Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Odds

Best Bets for Edwards vs Prates

Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Betting Tips

• Fight Winner – Carlos Prates: Prates is the favourite for this fight and has been incredibly impressive since joining the UFC in early 2024. The Brazilian fighter is 5-1, his only defeat coming in a tight decision loss to Ian Machado Garry. He has walked through the rest of his opponents. While he may not destroy Edwards, as he has the likes of Geoff Neal and Neil Magny, his power, strength and speed will be too much for the former champion. Bet on Prates to win this fight, worth 1/2.
• Method of Victory – Prates via KO/TKO: Prates is one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC. He has a frightening 17 KOs in 22 victories and has not won via any other method in six years. Edwards is durable and highly skilled, but the Brazilian’s striking power makes a KO/TKO the most probable outcome. The current price of 17/10 for a Prates knockout offers excellent value for anyone betting on the UFC.

• Fight To Go The Distance – Yes: This is a solid cover bet with our online sportsbook. Edwards is extremely durable, with a proven ability to absorb pressure and remain competitive while taking damage. While Prates has knockout power, Edwards’ experience and defensive skills mean this will be the toughest fight of the Brazilian’s career. While we expect him to win via finish, a competitive that sees all rounds completed is not out of the question. Backing the fight to go the distance at 4/5 is good value for anyone betting on MMA and looking to balance risk.

Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Head-To-Head and Key Stats

Edwards’ Recent Form

Leon Edwards has cemented his place as one of the most technically proficient welterweights in the UFC. He captured the UFC Welterweight Championship in August 2022 with a stunning head-kick knockout of Kamaru Usman. He successfully defended the title twice; first by majority decision against Usman in March 2023, and then by unanimous decision over Colby Covington in December 2023. His reign ended in July 2024, when he lost the belt to Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision.

Edwards excels at controlling distance, using precise striking, and patiently picking opponents apart over multiple rounds. While not as explosive as some of his rivals, his defensive awareness, adaptability, and championship experience make him a dangerous opponent in any fight. His professional record stands at 22 wins, 5 losses, and 1 no-contest, with victories achieved through 7 knockouts, 3 submissions, and 12 decisions, showcasing a mix of finishing ability and endurance. Edwards has never been knocked out in his career.

Prates’ Recent Form

Carlos Prates has quickly risen through the welterweight ranks with a reputation as a heavy-handed finisher. The Brazilian fighter is 22-7 in his professional MMA career, with 17 of those wins coming by KO/TKO, demonstrating his ability to end fights decisively. Prates’ UFC tenure has been marked by explosive performances, including highlight-reel knockouts over Geoff Neal and Neil Magny. His only UFC setback came via a unanimous decision loss to Ian Machado Garry in April 2025.

Prates fights with relentless forward pressure, mixing powerful strikes with sharp timing and occasional wrestling threats. He thrives on creating openings rather than waiting for his opponent to make a mistake. While his aggressive style carries risk, especially in later rounds, when he is in rhythm, he is one of the most dangerous finishers in the division.