Northampton Saints vs Union Bordeaux Bègles Preview
The Northampton Saints and Union Bordeaux Bègles meet at the Millennium Stadium for a huge clash in the European Rugby Champions Cup final on May 24th at 2:45 pm. Both sides enter on the back of extremely impressive performances in the semi-finals.
Bordeaux could break new ground with a victory in Wales. The French side has never won the ERCC, and this is their first appearance in a final. The Saints are hunting for their first title in 25 years. A victory here would change the narrative after a mediocre season in the English Premiership. Who will leave Cardiff victorious?
Northampton Saints vs Union Bordeaux Bègles Predictions
Score prediction: Northampton 21 – 37 Bordeaux
Our rugby predictions this week are for Union Bordeaux Bègles to bring home the trophy on Saturday afternoon. They have been the most impressive team in the tournament. L’Union has been formidable in attack, blowing opponents out of the water since the group stages. They will be too strong for the Northampton Saints here.
The half-back pairing of Maxime Lucu and Matthieu Jalibert has been instrumental in their success. They orchestrate play with precision and create opportunities for their teammates. Jalibert, in particular, has showcased exceptional vision and flair, contributing significantly to Bordeaux’s attacking threats. The French side scored more points than any other side in the competition, with 342, 71 more than their opponents on Saturday. That ruthless attack will overwhelm Northampton.
The forward pack has also been formidable, with Cyril Cazeaux and Pete Samu leading by example in both set-piece and open play. Their physicality and work rate have ensured that Bordeaux maintains dominance at the breakdown and in carrying the ball forward. Ben Tameifuna’s impact off the bench has further bolstered their scrum and defensive efforts.
This Bordeaux side has been the most impressive in the competition, and it is tough to see them falling at the final hurdle. They have the most points, tries, clean breaks, metres made, and turnovers won. On top of that, they have dominated set pieces with 91% lineout success and 98% scrum success. L’Union is a better side than Northampton by all metrics, and a professional performance should see them win without many issues.
Northampton faces significant challenges in the final, with several key players doubtful due to injury. Hooker Curtis Langdon, centre Burger Odendaal, and lock Alex Coles may all sit on the sidelines. The uncertainty surrounding captain George Furbank’s participation further complicates their preparations. Their depth is not at the level of Bordeaux’s, and there may be too many square pegs in round holes to overcome the French side. The remaining fit forwards must ensure solid scrummaging and compete effectively at the breakdown to disrupt Bordeaux’s rhythm.
To overcome the favourites, Northampton must leverage its attacking strengths, focusing on quick ball movement and exploiting any defensive lapses. The back three will need to capitalise on counter-attacking opportunities and gain significant yardage. Tommy Freeman’s pace will be vital there.
A key part of their stunning victory over Leinster in the semi-final was their ability to catch the defenders out with kicks and quick releases wide, favouring Freeman and Henry Pollock. They dismantled a Leinster side full of the best Irish rugby players in the world. A repeat of that performance can lead to another shock win, and Bordeaux should not underestimate the English side.
While Northampton Saints possess the talent and flair to challenge Bordeaux Bègles, the French side’s depth, experience, and tactical acumen make them the favourites to clinch the Champions Cup. The Saints’ injuries are very cruel at a time like this, but they simply do not have the depth to cover for three or four missing players. Bordeaux will emerge victorious if they execute their game plan effectively. Northampton showed we should never rule them out in their semi-final victory, but this looks like an even sterner task given the circumstances.
Players To Watch
- Tommy Freeman (Wing, Northampton Saints): Freeman was instrumental in the Saints’ shock win over Leinster in the semi-final. They will live and die by his performance in this game. His line-breaking ability is worth its weight in gold and will be the key to their likely counterattacking style here. He will be the danger man in attack, looking to break lines with his blistering pace, power and positioning.
- Damien Penaud (Wing, Union Bordeaux Begles): Bordeaux has been given a huge boost with news of Penaud being fit for the final. He is one of the most talented wingers in the world and has run riot in the ERCC so far. Penaud is also one of the highest-paid rugby players in the Top 14. The Frenchman has 12 tries to his name, more than any player in the competition. That is a record in the ERCC, and he shows no signs of slowing down for the final. Penaud is the most formidable attacking player on the field.
Northampton Saints vs Union Bordeaux Bègles
- Full-Time Result – Northampton Saints to win: L’Union are the overwhelming favourites for this game. They have stormed through every opponent in their way so far and have been comfortably the best team in the competition. However, a bet on Bordeaux is worth 1/3, which does not give us great value. Instead, we like a wager on the underdogs. Northampton had already dispatched the tournament favourites in the semi-final. They could lift the trophy if they can match that performance and have some key players return in time. A bet on Northampton is worth 12/5.
- Handicap – Bordeaux -8: This is the best way to back the favourites. L’Union’s scoring form has been incredible in the tournament. They have won every game by at least 12 points. Northampton could be without some key players, and Bordeaux will go in for the kill. Back them to cover the -8 handicap, worth evens for anyone betting on rugby.
- First Half Winning Margin – Bordeaux by 1 to 7: We think Bordeaux will win comfortably, but Northampton can keep things competitive for the first half. It is the second where depth and injuries may catch up to them. The French side led Stade Toulousain by seven points at halftime in the semi-final. Bet on L’Union to lead by 1 to 7 points at halftime, worth 2/1 with our online sportsbook.
Northampton Saints vs Union Bordeaux Bègles Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Bordeaux last played on May 17th in a Top 14 clash with Castres. They edged out their rivals in a thrilling Top 14 encounter ahead of their Champions Cup final. Castres started brightly, surging into a 14–0 lead after 17 minutes, with Santiago Arata finishing superbly to cap a dominant opening spell for the visitors. However, Bordeaux responded with authority, taking control before the break. They ran in five tries, turning the game around to lead 29–14 at half-time. Matthieu Jalibert starred for the hosts, scoring a fine solo try and setting up Maxime Lucu earlier in the half.
Bordeaux’s half-back pairing proved decisive, but Castres refused to go quietly. They mounted a comeback after the interval, scoring two tries to close the gap. Despite their late pressure, they couldn’t find a match-winning score. Jeremy Fernandez’s late penalty secured a bonus point for Castres, but it was a strong win for L’Union.
Northampton Saints staged a stunning comeback to beat Saracens 28–24 in their final home match of the season on May 17th. They overturned a 17-point deficit dramatically. The game began with Josh Kemeny opening the scoring for Saints, but Saracens quickly hit back through Tom Willis, Juan Martin Gonzalez, and Alex Goode to lead 19–7 by half-time.
Early in the second half, Saracens extended their lead to 24–7 when Rotimi Segun finished off a slick backline move. Northampton thought they had responded immediately through Alex Coles, only for the TMO to disallow the try. However, the comeback began in earnest when Tarek Haffar powered over following a quick-tap penalty. A penalty try from a collapsed maul brought Saints within three, and with the clock in the red, Haffar struck again. Fraser Dingwall and George Litchfield combined to create space for Haffar to seal the match-winning try, sending the Franklin’s Gardens crowd into celebration.
Northampton Saints Key Stats
- 271 points scored (3rd in ERCC)
- 39 tries scored (3rd in ERCC)
- 76 clean breaks (4th in ERCC)
- 213 defenders beaten (Most in the ERCC)
- 61 turnovers won (3rd in ERCC)
- Only one player has more tries than Tommy Freeman in the ERCC this season (9)
Union Bordeaux Begles Key Stats
- 342 points scored (Most in ERCC)
- 50 tries scored (Most in ERCC)
- 91% lineout success (Most in ERCC)
- 102 clean breaks (Most in ERCC)
- 75 turnovers won (Most in ERCC)
- Damien Penaud is the record try scorer in the ERCC (12)
