Saracens Rugby Club vs Connacht Rugby Preview
Connacht travels to London this Saturday for week two of the Champions Cup to face Saracens in a must-win encounter for both sides. After both teams suffered heavy losses in week 1, they have to rebound to stay in contention for the knockouts. The game kicks off on Saturday, December 16, 2023, at 1 pm, the first ERCC fixture of the day.
Saracens are heavy favourites for the duel, having won both previous matchups against Connacht. The Londoners also boast a world-class forward pack with oodles of international experience compared to Connacht. However, the men from Galway are seeking revenge against the Brits after going down to Saracens 64-6 in the last encounter almost a decade ago.
Saracens Rugby Club vs Connacht Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
The last time Saracens faced Connacht, the Fez Boys annihilated the men from the West Coast 64-6, running in 11 tries. One of the try scorers, Alex Goode, will run out at fullback this weekend. Other players involved in that 2014 clash included Billy and Mako Vunipola, Owen Farrell, and Jamie George. However, there are no surviving Connacht players in the rugby match for this weekend’s encounter. Gavin Duffy is involved in proceedings, but the retired player now watches from the coaching box.
Saracens have crossed the whitewash on 13 occasions in the two fixtures between these sides, compared to two from Connacht. In the previous outings, the Englishmen mustered up 87 points compared to 23 from the Irish team.
Attack Stats
Owen Farrel and his troops are a superior outfit on the attack, outclassing Connacht in points and the number of tries scored. Plus they are superior in other areas, such as defenders beaten, metres gained, and clean breaks. To be fair to Connacht, they have played a game less than Saracens this season.
Saracens have dotted down 32 times in the Guinness Premiership this year, while Connacht have 20 tries to their name in the URC. Connacht is the second-best defensive outfit in the URC this season. They will look to neutralise clean breaks from danger men Juan Martin Gonzalez and Sean Maitland.
Defence Stats
Connacht is a force to be reckoned with in defence, beating Saracens in every area except tackle success rate and turnovers won. However, the Londoners have made one per cent more of their tackles compared to the Irish lads.
In seven URC matches, Connacht has made 1,184 tackles, 88 more than Saracens, and they have a game in hand. Peter Wilkin’s men have missed fewer tackles than their English rivals and lost three fewer turnovers on game days. Although Saracens boast superior attacking prowess, the men from Galway have what it takes to shut them down.
Discipline Stats
Connacht has displayed greater discipline in the 2023/24 season over Joe Shaw’s Chargers. The Western Irish establishment has only conceded 59 penalties in the URC, the lowest in the tournament. Both teams are prone to giving away yellow cards, averaging one every 1.4 games. However, they have kept the red card count to zero.
Set Piece Stats
The Wolf Pack is better on paper in every set piece except for the percentage of scrums won. Saracens have won 92% of their line-outs in eight Guinness Premiership matches. Connacht only secures 80% of their line-out ball.
The Westerners flip the script on the English in the scrums, returning a 92% success rate. However, Saracens have scrummed more this season, which is why they have won more scrums but have a lower winning percentage than Connacht.
European Champions Cup 2023 23/24 Stats
Connacht and Saracens were on the receiving end of losses on the first match day. The Galway outfit suffered a hiding at the hands of Bordeaux Begles last Friday night in a home encounter. The London-based squad was on the road when they went down to the Bulls at Loftus last weekend.
Neither team was ever on the hunt in their respective matches, but Saracens managed two tries and 16 points. Connacht managed a solo try at home against Yannick Bru and his squad.
Saracens Rugby Club vs Connacht Rugby Predictions
The hosts are the outright favourites in the European Rugby Champions Cup betting, priced at 1/20 on Novibet. After all, the Farrell lead outfit is a stronger team on paper, littered with international experience, including players like Itoje, Gonzalez, and Elliot Daly.
However, Connacht has its ammunition, the devastating Bundee Aki. He can break lines and set a game alight without warning. Despite his class, Connacht betting odds show very little belief in the men in green bagging victory in London on Saturday. The 44/1 odds highlight this for a draw, well above the average price for a rugby match. Bets on the visitors to come out on top are sitting at 17/2. Placing ten euros on the men in green to win outright could payout €95.00, but the chances are slim.
We dug deep to determine a winner in this contest because neither team is in form. The westerners have lost three matches on the trot, while Saracens have lost two. The Saracens team sheet appears superior, and they are playing in front of their home crowd. It is not all rosy for Saracens, though. They are coming off a loss to the Bulls and a long flight back from South Africa. They have also had one day less to rest compared to Connacht, who tackled Bordeaux last Friday evening.
Saracens Rugby Club vs Connacht Rugby Betting Tips
This weekend is the opportune time to enter the realm of sports betting, with an abundance of quality ERCC matches on the go. We predict a win for the hosts, priced at 1/20. However, on Novibet, there is a plethora of alternative bets where the odds and returns are favourable. Besides picking the winner, you can also make handicap, winning margin, and first-half rugby wagers.
This weekend, the odds of Saracens winning between eight and fourteen points are 13/4. If you stake €20, your potential return is €84. Since the odds are in favour of a Saracens win, this is one approach to boosting your returns. Another option with favourable odds is to take a handicap bet. Novibet is offering 4/1 betting odds on a -29.5 handicap for Saracens. If Saracens wins by 30 points or more, a €10 wager pays out €50.
We encourage you to enjoy the wealth of European Champions Cup rugby this weekend but always gamble responsibly. If you are a beginner, take advantage of your welcome bonus to reduce your initial risk and get used to the practice of online rugby betting.
After assessing the past performances between these teams, their recent form, and injuries, we think Saracens will take it. We are doubtful of another rout by the English, but we think they will walk away comfortably by sixteen points or more.
Saracens Rugby Club Team News & Lineups
The Sarries team sheet should remain largely unchanged for the battle in London this week, with Owen Farrell set to lead out the ‘Men in Black.’ The ever-present Maro Itoje and Juan Martin Gonzalez are sure to be a nuisance in the line-out and at the breakdown, disturbing Connacht’s ball distribution.
Billy Vunipola is available for selection after being cleared to play following his red card appeal for a shoulder charge on Cameron Hanekom. He will add additional flair and power to Saracen’s back row to help them get forward.
- Predicted Lineup: Vunipola M, George J, Clarey A, Itoje M, Tizard H, Gonzalez J, Christie A, Vunipola B, van Zyl I, Farrell O, Maitland S, Tompkins N, Daly E, Lewington A, Goode A.
Injured Mack Hansen to miss Saracens clash but expected to return before Christmas https://t.co/o1Y3gJCxSe
— The Irish Times (@IrishTimes) December 13, 2023
Connacht News & Lineups
Connacht and the Ireland coaching staff have sweated all week over the injury of Mack Hansen. The Westerner playmaker hobbled off the field against Bordeaux last weekend, and they feared the worst initially. However, he returned to training this week and is better than expected, but Hansen will not travel to London this weekend.
Fans will expect massive shifts from their Ireland internationals, Finlay Bealham and Bundee Aki. Pete Wilkins will ask Bealham to contain the powerful Sarries pack, while Aki will need to break the lines and turn on the afterburners to keep his team in the game.
- Predicted Lineup: Buckley D, Heffernan D, Bealham F, Murray D., Joyce J, Prenderghast C, Hurley-Langton S, Jansen S, Blade C, Hanrahan J, Smith A, Aki B, Forde C, Ralston B, Porch J,
