Scarlets Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Preview
It’s round 16 of the United Rugby Championship this weekend, and Scarlets Rugby will host Ulster Rugby. Kick-off is at 3.05 pm GMT on Saturday at Parc y Scarlets in Llanelli. Neither team played last weekend, so they should be fresh for this URC clash in South Wales.
In their last match on 26th April, the Scarlets were narrowly beaten 32-27 at home by South African side, Hollywoodbets Sharks. Centre Johnny Williams and full-back Ioan Nicholas were outstanding in the bonus-point defeat. Fly-half Sam Costelow had 100% kick success, but the Welsh side came up short.
Ulster also last played on 26th April. They saw off Benetton Rugby at Kingspan Stadium on that occasion. The game finished 38-34, with scrum-half John Cooney’s boot proving the difference. He kicked six out of six from the tee to help the home side to a bonus-point victory over the Italians.
Scarlets Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
There are just three rounds left in this season’s United Rugby Championship before the playoffs begin. Scarlets had a woeful campaign and are already out of the running for a play-off spot. With just three wins from their 15 matches, they sit 14th on the table. Even if they win their final three games, their highest possible finish is 12th.
Ulster, meanwhile, still has some work to do to clinch a top-eight spot. They’re currently in seventh, but only one point clear of ninth-placed Edinburgh Rugby. A win this Saturday will go a long way to seeing them secure a play-off place.
With nothing to play for except pride, Scarlets will count down the days until the season ends. Their head-to-head record with Ulster makes for grim reading too. The Irish side has won the past six meetings between the two teams. You must go back to November 2018 for the last Scarlets victory in this fixture, a 29-12 success. In the last rugby match between the teams, Ulster piled on the points. The 55 they scored in that 55-39 win was their highest ever against Scarlets. John Cooney was the hero that day for Ulster. He scored 30 points, including two tries, seven conversions and two penalties.
Coming into this weekend’s game, the Scarlets’ recent form is concerning. They’ve lost their past three games, conceding over 30 points in each of them. That includes a 45-3 mauling by Glasgow Warriors when they failed to score a try. They’re 27 points behind Ulster in the URC table, so betting on Scarlets this weekend is a long shot.
As for Ulster, they’ve had a pretty inconsistent season, but their destiny is in their own hands in the URC. They’ve won their past two games against Benetton and Cardiff Rugby to climb into the top eight. However, Ulster crashed out of the Investec Champions Cup early on. To add insult to injury, they lost 53-14 to Clermont in the EPCR Challenge Cup.
Scarlets Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Predictions
Correct Score Prediction: Scarlets Rugby 15-25 Ulster Rugby
We predict Ulster will go home with the victory this weekend in a close contest. Although Scarlets can’t make the playoffs, they’ll still want to finish the season strongly. They have just two more games in front of their home fans, so they’ll be up for this game.
Ulster still has plenty to play for. Back-to-back wins in their past two URC games mean they’re still in contention to win the whole competition. With this in mind, we predict a big performance on Saturday. Whilst we expect Ulster to win, we’re predicting a tight game, with most of the points scored in the second half.
Ulster is the big favourites this weekend and there’s not much value to be had in an outright victory. Instead, we’d suggest betting on Ulster in the handicap market. We also like the look of the over/under points and tries markets in this game. Scarlets are last in the URC for points scored and tries scored. They’ve only scored over 20 points in one of their past eight URC matches. In all competitions, it’s just once in 13 matches. Therefore, betting on the Scarlets to score under 20 points looks good if you’re betting on the United Rugby Championship this weekend.
We also like the look of the card market in this game, especially if you’re betting in-play. Ulster is the second-worst offender in the URC this season for yellow cards. The Irish team has seen 11 players sent to the sin bin. Scarlets aren’t much better, with nine sin bins in the URC this campaign. Therefore, a yellow card in this match looks a strong possibility. Offenders Luke Marshall and Kieran Treadwell have gone to the sin bin twice in the URC. On that basis, they’d be our top picks for a yellow card if they’re named in the team.
Nine Scarlets players have picked up yellow cards, so you can almost take your pick. However, they’re also the least disciplined team in the URC for scrum offences. On that note, we predict one forward will get a yellow card. Steffan Thomas and Kemsley Mathias would be our top two rugby predictions for a sin bin.
Scarlets Rugby vs Ulster Rugby Betting Tips
As we said before, we predict an Ulster win on Saturday. However, there’s little value in betting on an outright win this weekend, as it’s priced at just 3/10. That means that for a €10 stake, you’ll receive just €3 profit. As we expect this game to be relatively tight, that’s an enormous risk for a small reward. Therefore, we’d go for Ulster with a -7.5 handicap. That’s priced at 17/20, so you’ll be close to doubling your money if it comes in.
For a higher return with a realistic chance, we also like the look of the draw at half-time and Ulster to win at full-time. We expect Ulster to pull away in the second half, so this looks a good chance at 14/1. Of course, it’s a bit of an outsider, so it may be worth using your welcome bonus. You’ll minimise your risk of a loss, but also be in with a chance of a bigger return.
We also like the player markets, especially with try scorers. Tom Stewart is our anytime try scorer pick for Ulster. The hooker is joint-second in the URC for the number of tries scored, with eight. Given that Scarlets rank near the bottom of the table for scrum defence and turnovers lost, we reckon he could barrel his way over at some point. Jacob Stockdale is another one of our picks for a try. The Ulster winger is right behind his teammate in the charts with seven. Backing him to score at any time looks like a solid rugby wager.
Scrum-half Gareth Davies is Scarlet’s top try scorer with five in this season’s URC. We prefer the look of centre Johnny Williams for an anytime try. However, most of the Scarlets’ points will come from the boot of Sam Costelow. We also think John Cooney will make a difference with the boot for Ulster. With that in mind, we’d bet on the first points of the game being scored from a penalty.
One of the Scarlets’ greats, Jonathan Davies, will say farewell to the club at the end of the season.
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Un o oreuon y Scarlets, Jonathan Davies, yn ffarwelio’r clwb ar ddiwedd y tymor.#DiolchFoxy pic.twitter.com/8zzTHUdRCz
— Scarlets Rugby (@scarlets_rugby) May 8, 2024
Scarlets Rugby Team News & Lineups
The biggest team news to come out of Scarlets this week is the upcoming departure of Jonathan Davies. With the Scarlets’ last home game in Cardiff, this will be his farewell game in Llanelli. The Wales international centre will leave the club after 16 seasons and 209 games.
There are no fresh injury concerns for the Scarlets from their last game against the Sharks. Expect to see minimal changes to the squad from that clash. Joe Roberts, Steff Evans and captain Josh Macleod remain long-term absentees.
Ulster Rugby Team News & Lineups
Irish international hooker Rob Herring will make his return from injury this weekend. Centre Stewart Moore is also available after injury. Winger Jacob Stockdale and scrum-half Dave Shanahan will also be free to play. Both players needed a head injury assessment in Ulster’s last game against Benetton. However, both have passed the return-to-play protocols to be available this week.
James Hume remains a long-term absentee for Ulster. The centre suffered a knee injury in last month’s URC clash with Cardiff Blues. Having seen a knee specialist, the medical team confirmed he requires anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) surgery. This rules him out of the rest of this campaign and well into next season.
South Africa prop Steven Kitshoff has already played his last game for the province and returned home. He suffered a season-ending knee injury against Clermont last month. The prop had already agreed on a return home for next season with the Stormers.
