Section Paloise vs Connacht Rugby Preview
It’s a big week for several teams as we enter the knockout stage of the European Rugby Challenge Cup. Connacht travels to Pau in France this week to take on Section Paloise. It is shaping up to be a scintillating cup tie, as both teams have struggled this season. Section Paloise vs Connacht is one to watch as little separates the sides on paper.
If you have followed the United Rugby Championship, Connacht was a surprise package at the start of the new campaign. However, the side has lacked consistency, and they enter the EPCR Challenge Cup after two consecutive defeats. Section Paloise is facing the same trouble, having lost two in a row before this match. It should be a fantastic game of European rugby, as neither side has lived up to expectations in 2024.
Section Paloise vs Connacht Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Connacht had several months to lick their wounds after exiting the Champions Cup. The Irish side finished fifth in Pool One, and they are lucky to be in any cups after a poor group stage. Connacht only managed one win in the final group game against the Bristol Bears, sending them into the lower tier of the competition. Pau had three victories in the Challenge Cup, finishing second in the group.
This is an interesting rugby match, as the two sides are yet to face off in recent years. That means there is no head-to-head record available when betting on this fixture. Instead, we will have to rely heavily on their current league form. Section Paloise plays in the France Top 14 league, and they are a mid-table side. Of the 14 teams in the division, Pau is seventh with 20 games played. They have won as many as they have lost this campaign, not including winning their last two matches in the Challenge Cup.
Connacht now find themselves in tenth place in the URC following a defeat to Benetton. The Irish side looked strong during the Six Nations, beating Cardiff and the Scarlets. But a heavy defeat at home to the Lions and a capitulation in Italy has rocked the team. Neither side will enter this match full of confidence, but Connacht is in a precarious spot. Lose this match and the pressure is on to make something happen in the league. Otherwise, these teams could face a rematch in the Challenge Cup next year.
Looking at Section Palosie, the French Top 14 league has been far more active during the Six Nations than the URC. This extra game time has not benefitted the French side, as they have lost three of their last four games. The only positive to take is the victory they picked up a month ago at home. All three recent Pau losses have come on the road, which should spell trouble for Connacht. The Irish side has already dropped from the Champions Cup, and their league form is not much better.
Connacht was out of sorts in late November last year. The Irish side went on a five-game losing streak before beating Munster on New Year’s Day. After losing to Lyon in round three of the Champions Cup group stage, Connacht went on a three-game streak against Bristol, Cardiff, and the Scarlets. The Westerners are back to their losing ways after suffering a humiliating defeat at home against the Lions and letting a late lead slip in Italy against Benetton. There are glimpses of Connacht’s potential, but far too many mistakes already this season.
Making rugby predictions is easy when there is a clear favourite. However, this fixture features two evenly matched teams in rival leagues face off for the first time. There are no previous meetings, and both teams have lost two on the bounce in their respective leagues. While there is money to be made when betting on the European Rugby Challenge Cup, we feel bettors need to exercise some caution. This match could go either way.
Section Paloise vs Connacht Rugby Predictions
Prediction: Section Paloise 28-26 Connacht
The knockout round of the EPCR Challenge Cup always provides excitement, and we predict Pau vs Connacht will be an excellent game for a neutral. However, with the advantage of Section playing in the competition from round one, and the support of the home fans, we expect a French win this weekend. Pau will establish an early lead, but Connacht will make a comeback. The Irish side will take the lead in the second half but won’t hold on for the win.
Our rugby prediction this week is based on both sides’ previous results. In Pau’s last three league games, they have scored first. Two of these matches have been on the road, but they always start the game on the front foot. Connacht has also conceded the first points in their two most recent matches, showing they have started slowly recently. Last time out against Benetton, it looked like the Irish side had the job done. A try in the 74th minute from Prenderghast and a conversion by Carty gave the visitors a one-point lead. Six minutes later, Izekor got the winning score for the hosts.
There is a real lack of belief in this Irish side now. Betting on Connacht to win this match should be straightforward, especially since they competed in the Champions Cup until a few weeks ago. However, injuries and international rugby have been unkind to the side. There’s a possibility of a turnaround against Pau, but it hinges on the injured players returning and making an impact.
Section Paloise may have lost the past two matches, but they did so by two and three points. They have scored 28 and 29 in those defeats, and their last win came in a game with 82 points scored. Compare that to Connacht, who scored 14 points in consecutive games. Only twice in 2024 has Connacht registered over 25 points in a game, a serious cause for concern. Yes, they have been defensively fragile in the past couple of weeks. But a team that struggles to score points does not challenge for the European rugby union cups.
Our prediction is for a close and exciting game that ends with a home team victory. Live betting will be difficult, especially if Connacht can get a few scores on the board. However, with the lack of confidence at the back, we cannot back the Irish side to hold on for a win. It slipped through their fingers at Benetton last week, and that was not the first time vital points have slipped away from this team.
Section Paloise vs Connacht Rugby Betting Tips
This week, betting on the EPCR Challenge Cup will be exciting. There are plenty of excellent matchups, so choosing your bet will be crucial. In a match like this, looking at your traditional outright wager is not the most rewarding option. Instead, you can get better returns with less risk by looking at the other betting options.
This fixture leans more towards betting on handicap markets. We predict a couple of points will separate the teams at the final whistle, which opens the possibilities for larger returns. Betting on Connacht to be within five points at the end of the match has greater returns than betting on Pau to win. The only downside to this wager is if the Irish side falls apart and loses the match by six points or more.
Other options include the winning margin. Once again, we see this match going the distance, with both teams keeping up with the scoring. Novibet gives you the option when betting on rugby union matches to choose the winning margin. This is the approximate number of points a team will lead at the final whistle. We back Pau to win the game with less than seven points.
If you sign up for sports betting at Novibet, you can use your welcome bonus on any fixture. This week presents more risk as little separates the two teams. That means, investigating less risky wagers if you want to secure some profit. Betting on the highest-scoring half and the odd or even total is a great way to play. These markets give you a 50-50 chance of profit. Plus, you can get paid regardless of who wins the contest.
Anyone considering a rugby bet on the underdog should pay close attention to the team news. Several key Connacht players are back in training and could return this weekend. With all their best players back and performing at their best, Connacht could surprise everyone in France. Ensure when you place a wager or live bet, you stake sensibly.
Section Paloise Team News
There was some big news coming out of the Pau camp this week as a legend of the sport announced his retirement. Samuel Whitelock confirmed his intention to retire at the end of the season. Whitelock is the most capped player in All Blacks history and was iconic for New Zealand. He joined Section in December 2023 and has played a big part in the team on and off the pitch. He could influence the game this weekend.
Connacht Rugby Team News
Much needed good news for Connacht this week as Finley Bealham and Ireland legend Bundee Aki returned to full training. Dylan Tierney-Martin, Caolin Blade, Sean O’Brien, and John Porch are also available. Plus JJ Hanrahan and Conor Oliver have followed the return-to-play protocols and could also make the journey to Pau. The medical team confirmed several players are still not ready for first-team action, including Santiago Cordero, Sean Janse, Mack Hansen, Byron Ralston, Oisin Dowling, Diarmuid Kilgallen, and Michael McDonald.
