Hull City vs Everton Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 11/10/2026

Our prediction for this match leans towards Everton, and the margin is a wide one. The model gives the visitors 46% against 26% for Hull City, with the draw on 28%, and 0-1 to Everton is the most likely scoreline. A 20-point margin between the two sides tells you how little weight home advantage carries here. Everton arrive unbeaten in five and concede 0.6 goals a game. Hull, by contrast, have lost two of their last five and rarely see much of the ball. On our numbers, Everton or the draw covers 74% of outcomes, which leaves Hull needing something special. We expect a cagey afternoon, short on goals and settled by a single moment, most likely late on.

Our three angles all point the same way. Everton are the stronger side, but this is not a match for big numbers. Our model has the visitors on 46% to win and Hull on only 26%, yet the draw at 28% is live enough that we want cover rather than a straight away bet. Goals look scarce too, with Everton matches clearing 2.5 goals just 20% of the time.

Every callout here points to defence. Hull City kept clean sheets in 60% of their five league games, which is why we are not writing them off at home. Everton supply the other two: they are unbeaten in all of their last five, and half of their goals arrived after the 60th minute. Put those together and you get a match that stays tight for an hour and is settled late. If it is still level at the hour, the live betting price on an Everton win could be worth more than anything on offer before kick-off.

Form backs the away side clearly. Everton are unbeaten in five, with two straight 1-0 wins over Ipswich Town and Wolves, and before that three draws with Tottenham, Manchester United and Bournemouth. They scored five and conceded three in that run. That is hardly a fireworks display, but it shows how hard they are to beat. The catch is that they have not won away yet, drawing both trips this season with half a goal scored and half conceded per game.

Hull's run is patchier. They have one win, two draws and two defeats in five, with four scored and five conceded, and they come into this off a 2-1 defeat to Newcastle. The 2-2 with Chelsea showed they can hurt good sides. At home they have won one and drawn one without conceding, and that is the only real counterweight to Everton's form. It is also why we prefer the double chance to the outright away win.

Everton have the bigger confirmed problem, with three players ruled out. Defender Vitaliy Mykolenko had played all 450 league minutes, and Merlin Röhl and Christian Nørgaard are out as well. Hull have only Ilyas Ansah confirmed absent, while Charlie Hughes, Eliot Matazo and Darko Gyabi are doubts, none of them with league minutes recorded this season. Losing Mykolenko is the absence that matters most for the bet, because it forces a reshuffle in a back line that has conceded only three in five.

Both squads spread their goals around, so the few players with more than one stand out. Mohamed Belloumi has a hand in four of Hull's six goals, two scored and two set up, and Thierno Barry carries the same weight for Everton with two of their six. In a match this tight, one finish could decide everything. At the back, Ryan Giles and James Tarkowski have barely missed a minute between them.

This is a match to bet against goals. Both sides score 1.2 per match, so neither has an edge in attack, but the defensive numbers favour Everton, who concede 0.6 a game to Hull's 0.8. A gap of 0.2 sounds small. Over a run of games it is the difference between a clean sheet and chasing a result.

The venue splits push the total lower still. Hull have scored once per home game and conceded nothing there, while Everton's away matches have averaged half a goal scored and half a goal conceded. Neither side's venue numbers suggest more than two goals, which is why under 2.5 sits on our card.

The minute bands give us a clear plan for betting on football in play. Hull have conceded three of their four goals in the first 15 minutes, and none between the 16th and 60th. Start fast and you catch them cold. Miss that window and they become very hard to break down.

Everton are slow burners by comparison, scoring half of their six goals between the 76th minute and full time. Hull have not scored once in the opening quarter hour and got four of their six between the 16th minute and the break. If it is goalless after 15 minutes, we would lean further into the under. If it is level with 20 minutes left, an Everton goal is the one we would back.

Everton should see more of the ball and create more chances. They average 44% possession to Hull's 32%, a gap of 12 points, and take 16.0 shots a game against 12.2. Everton put 4.6 shots on target per match to Hull's 3.8, although Hull are slightly more accurate at 31% on target against 29%.

Both clubs average well under half the ball, which tells you they are comfortable without it. That fits the low totals. Hull will look to counter and pick their moments. Everton take plenty of shots without a matching tally of goals, which points to patience rather than ruthlessness. We read that as support for Everton or the draw, not for a big Everton handicap.

The goal lines make the cleanest case on the page for over under betting. Everton matches have gone over 2.5 goals only 20% of the time, and Hull's 40% brings the combined average to just 30%. Put the other way, the under has landed in roughly seven of every ten games across the two sides.

The other lines tell the same story. Both clubs have seen over 1.5 goals in 60% of games, so a single goal or none is far from unusual, and over 3.5 has come up just 20% of the time for each. Both teams have scored in only 40% of matches for each side, so we would steer clear of that market too. Under 2.5 is our play. Under 3.5 is a safer anchor if you are building an accumulator with your wider sports betting.

Hull are the side who will pick up the cards. Hull average 3.6 yellow cards a game, double Everton's 1.8, and commit 10.0 fouls against Everton's 8.0. Combined, that comes to 5.4 yellows and 18.0 fouls per match, and neither club has had a red card yet.

A team with 32% of the ball spends a lot of time chasing, and that is where the bookings come from. For card markets we would focus on Hull rather than the match total. The corners point the other way: Everton win 5.0 a game and Hull concede 6.0, so the betting odds on Everton winning the corner count deserve a look.

The trends split neatly, with the first half belonging to Hull and the second to Everton. 67% of Hull's goals have come before half-time, only a third after the 60th minute, and they have conceded just a quarter of their goals in that late window. Everton are the mirror image, with a third of their goals before the break and half after the hour.

Add Everton's run of five unbeaten, the last two of them wins, and the shape of the match is clear. Hull are most dangerous early and Everton finish strongly, and the sports betting odds at kick-off rarely capture that kind of pattern. If Hull lead at the break, we would hold an Everton or draw ticket rather than cash it in, because the second half is where Everton do their damage.