Stade Rochelais vs Leinster Preview
Leinster will travel to France for a big European Rugby Champions Cup clash with Stade Rochelais. They’ll face their old nemesis Ronan O’Gara and his La Rochelle side. It’s an enormous opportunity for Leinster to consolidate their spot in the knockout stages. Meanwhile, La Rochelle will hope to dampen their march forward.
Leinster is in impressive form again this season and enters this game with yet another chastening victory over Irish rivals Munster. The French side is enduring mixed fortunes in this campaign, but a win over Leinster would generate momentum. There’s plenty on the line in this clash between two of European rugby’s greatest sides.
Stade Rochelais vs Leinster Key Stats and Head-to-Head
La Rochelle and Leinster have one of the most passionate rivalries in the Champions Cup. Ronan O’Gara’s team inflicted a painful defeat on the Irish giants in the 2021 semifinals. Then they won back-to-back finals as they prevented Leo Cullen’s side from claiming that coveted fifth star.
O’Gara’s long affiliation with Munster makes him the bane of Leinster fans’ existence. However, they got revenge last year with two impressive victories over the French side. First, they beat La Rochelle 16-9 in the pool stage. Then they demolished them with a 40-point victory in the quarterfinals.
Leinster remains unbeaten in all competitions this season. They bounced back well considering they let down the fans who bet on the European Champions Cup final last year. Meanwhile, Jacques Nienaber’s coaching has helped them to reach another level. The South African is even in the conversation as a long-term Andy Farrell replacement.
Sam Prendergast’s emergence has been one of the stories of the season. Many analysts compare the young fly-half to one of the best Irish rugby players of all time, Jonny Sexton, because of his composure and ice-cool demeanour. Leinster has other options, including Ross Byrne and Ciaran Frawley. It’s an exciting time for the province because Prendergast is a blue-chip prospect. He has six conversions in the Champions Cup this season already.
Last time out in La Rochelle 🔥 👊
An epic look at our clash away to La Rochelle last season. 🎥#SRvLEI #NeverLessThanEverything pic.twitter.com/qp7ofVTIOx
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) January 7, 2025
La Rochelle’s most recent victory was an uninspiring win over a youthful Toulouse. Previously, they suffered a loss to Perpignan. The French rugby club has too many players on the wrong side of 30. However, this is the type of game where veteran nous could be very valuable.
Levani Botia and Gregory Alldritt are in second place for the most turnovers in the tournament this season with four apiece. However, the bad news for O’Gara is that no man has more than Caelan Doris, who has five. The inspirational Leinster star is one of the best players in the world right now.
Stade Rochelais vs Leinster Predictions
Predicted Score: Stade Rochelais 18 – 32 Leinster
Leinster will justifiably enter this game as favourites because of their dominant form in the URC and Europe. Our rugby prediction is that they’ll secure their third-straight victory over Stade Rochelais and win this Pool 2 Game. It will also be their second victory at the Stade Marcel Deflandre.
This is a fitter Leinster team with many players returning from injury. Hugo Keenan is one of the most important because he is world-class. Keenan is desperate to make up for lost time after a stop-start couple of seasons with Leinster and Ireland. He may walk straight back into their starting lineup.
Leinster is in a better place than this inconsistent La Rochelle team. The French side has eight wins and six losses in the Top 14 this season. They can’t afford an off-day against Leinster because the Irish team will make them pay a painful price. We think that’s what’s going to happen.
Another key issue for La Rochelle is that they haven’t refreshed their team. They remain the same unit as their last defeats against Leinster. However, the Irish team added another dimension to the squad with RG Snyman and Jordie Barrett. Barrett has 31 carries in the ERCC, which is worth its weight in gold at this point in the campaign.
We predict this will be the toughest test of Sam Prendergast’s career. The young fly-half has barely put a foot wrong this year. However, O’Gara will be desperate to put him under pressure. We think he’ll stand up well to this, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Ross Byrne replaces him in the second half.
Antoine Hastoy will be a crucial figure for La Rochelle in this game. It’s been a very mixed season for the French international, but he proved his credentials against Toulouse. Hastoy scored the game-winning penalty in the dying embers of the match and demonstrated his composure. They’ll need him if this game remains close in the final ten minutes.
Stepping it up ahead of our trip to La Rochelle. 👟📈#SRvLEI #NeverLessThanEverything pic.twitter.com/5zp4h3Ipuv
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) January 7, 2025
Leinster is a clinical attacking beast this year. They have the most points in the URC and the most tries with 38. Caelan Doris already has four in that competition. Meanwhile, Jack Conan and Jordan Larmour have three. Prendergast has the second-most points in the Champions Cup with 25.
Don’t forget to check the live betting markets during this game. We think Leinster will beat La Rochelle. But the French side could sneak an early score and the odds may shift. We’d still back Leinster to win the second half and it may be more lucrative. One red card or injury can change the course of the entire game.
Stade Rochelais vs Leinster Betting Tips
Leinster enters this game as the favourite on our sports betting site. We agree with this because of their stronger squad and consistent form. They have too many weapons and should overwhelm La Rochelle in the second half. We believe the French club will give a good account of themselves, but ultimately key moments will cost them.
It’s 9/20 for Leinster to win this game outright. Betting on Leinster makes sense because they should win. A €10 stake would make €4.50 if successful. This may be even more tempting with a larger stake. If you apply your welcome bonus, it will enhance your wager with no extra risk.
Another option is a handicap bet on Leinster to win. This would give the odds a boost and potentially allow players to make a bigger profit. Consider a -5.5 handicap on Leinster at 10/11. This time, €10 would make €9.09. A single converted try would take Leinster past this threshold.
Meanwhile, La Rochelle is a 19/10 underdog. Players can almost double their money if the French team wins. This isn’t impossible because they have some big Champions Cup victories already this season. Furthermore, Ronan O’Gara is a master at inflicting pain on Leinster. A winning €10 wager would make €19.
Check the other rugby union markets, including individual players. The missing Jonathan Danty is a colossal blow for La Rochelle and something Leinster can exploit at set pieces. There’s a good chance that Caelan Doris will add another try to his collection. However, we predict Sam Prendergast will be this game’s top scorer.
Joyeux Nowell! Unreal finish from Jack Nowell for La Rochelle.#SRvBRI pic.twitter.com/cGwpB8kNoJ
— EK Rugby Analysis (@ek_rugby) December 14, 2024
Another option is to bet on the winning margin. It’s 12/5 for Leinster to win by 1 to 7 points. However, they may run rampant, so we’d be tempted to go for a riskier wager with them to win by 8 to 14 at 14/5. You could also make an over-under bet on the total number of points in this game.
Don’t forget to look beyond this game. We have Munster vs Saracens predictions available and this match promises to be a highlight of the competition. Ulster will travel across the Irish Sea to play Leicester. You could also bet on the Champions Cup outright winner this season. Leinster is the second favourite at 23/10.
Stade Rochelais Team News
Ronan O’Gara is without several key players for this game. Jonathan Danty is a major absentee and leaves a gaping hole in the centre. Meanwhile, Teddy Thomas is serving a suspension. Dillyn Leyds is also absent because of a HIA.
Leinster Team News
There is some good news for Leinster because a clutch of players will return to action this weekend. Hugo Keenan is available for the first time since his wrist injury against Australia and is a massive addition. Jack Conan is another big returnee because he’s in try-scoring form this season.
Ciaran Frawley, Max Deegan, and Thomas Clarkson are also fit to play. Tadhg Furlong remains doubtful, but Leinster still retains hopes that he will be fit. Dan Sheehan is a long-term absentee as he steps up his ACL recovery, but won’t return until after the Six Nations.
