Ulster Rugby vs Scarlets Preview
Ulster Rugby welcomes the Scarlets to Limerick on Saturday, March 1st, at 5:15 pm in the United Rugby Championship. Both teams enter this game looking to bounce back from defeats in their last outing.
Ulster have not won a league game so far in 2025 and are desperate to turn their season around with a playoff spot not yet out of reach. The Scarlets are in the postseason positions but have struggled on the road all season. Can Ulster turn their fortunes around in Belfast, or will the Scarlets claim their first league win outside of Wales this season?
Ulster Rugby vs Scarlets Predictions
Correct score prediction: Ulster 22-19 Scarlets
The Scarlets have put in some strong performances but have also struggled to maintain consistency. They’ve shown resilience, particularly in attack, with players like Jonathan Davies and Steff Evans providing a threat. However, their defence has often been vulnerable, and they will need to be much tighter in that area against a powerful Ulster side. The Scarlets will also need to improve their discipline, as giving away easy penalties can prove costly in high-stakes away games like this one.
Ulster comes into this game in wobbly form. The Ulstermen have traditionally been a strong side in the URC, especially at Kingspan Stadium in Belfast. However, they have run into a couple of shock losses recently. Defeats to Italian strugglers Zebre and Benetton will have a lasting impact. Ulster must regain its clinical edge and focus on avoiding mistakes if they are to secure the win. Their set-piece and forward dominance will be key to winning the battle in the trenches. We think Ulster can bounce back here and our rugby prediction is for Richie Murphy’s man to get back to winning ways in Belfast.
One of Ulster’s key strengths is physicality. Iain Henderson leads the charge in the second row, and their forwards are a dominant force. Their scrums, lineouts, and driving mauls are key areas they will look to exploit against the Scarlets, especially considering the Welsh side’s struggles in set-piece play this season. Rob Herring’s experience will be crucial here should he play. He will help dominate in scrummaging and mauls for Ulster, setting up a platform for their backs to attack.
The Scarlets’ strength lies in their ability to counterattack and their creativity in the backline. That could cause Ulster problems if the Welsh side can maintain possession and create quick, dynamic attacks. Their forwards will also need to provide a strong platform in the set-pieces, something that has been a weak point in previous matchups with top-tier teams.
Ulster also boasts quality in their backline, with Jacob Stockdale and Stuart McCloskey, supplying plenty of attacking threat. Their ability to play a structured set-piece game and an expansive attacking style will be crucial against the Scarlets.
The midfield battle will be important in determining who controls possession and territory. McCloskey is a powerful ball carrier and a solid defender. Eddie James and Joe Roberts have stepped up for the Scarlets since Jonathan Davies’ retirement, but neither has the experience McCloskey boasts. The outcome of this contest will have a major impact on both teams’ ability to gain momentum and break the game open, and Ulster should win that fight.
Ulster’s home advantage and strong form at Kingspan Stadium make them the favourites for this encounter. Their ability to win the battle up front and a potent backline should see them gain the upper hand. The Scarlets, while dangerous in attack, will need to be more disciplined in defence and make fewer unforced errors to stand a chance.
Ultimately, Ulster’s dominance in the forward line combined with their superior set-piece play, will probably prove too much for the Scarlets to overcome. While the Welsh side will push them, Ulster’s well-rounded game should see them secure the win.
Ulster Rugby vs Scarlets Betting Tips
Ulster are comfortably favourites for this game, worth 7/20 with our online bookmaker. The Scarlets’ poor away form gives the Ulstermen an edge. The Welsh side has won just one game on the road this season and none outside Wales. This will be a tight contest, but we think Ulster are the most likely to edge a game of fine margins.
While we think Ulster will win. However, the Scarlets are good value for a bet given the Ulstermen’s form. Zebre are one of the worst teams in the league and they struggled to get anything going against the Italian side. They were also expected to defeat Benetton but were completely outclassed by them at home. A bet on the Scarlets is worth 23/10 and we could see the Belfast side fall to a third-straight upset defeat.
Handicap
The handicap for this game is 6.5 for anyone betting on the URC. Ulster have only covered that in two of their victories in the United Rugby Championship and both were against teams with negative win/loss records. The Scarlets have not lost to any side in the bottom half by that wide a margin this season. Bet on the Welsh side to cover +6.5, worth 10/11 at our sports betting site.
Point Scorers
Ioan Lloyd is the second top scorer in the URC this season with just one point separating him from the top spot. His excellent kicking this season makes the 23-year-old a favourite for another strong performance. If you want to bet on rugby union this weekend, we like a wager on Lloyd to score eight or more points in this game.
Ulster Rugby vs Scarlets Head-To-Head and Key Stats
These sides last met in May 2024 at Parc y Scarlets. Ulster secured a dominant 34-22 victory over the Scarlets, with tries from Stuart McCloskey, Nick Timoney, David McCann, and Jacob Stockdale. John Cooney registered 11 points on the day. Cormac Izuchukwu was outstanding in the win.
The Scarlets fought back with tries from Carwyn Tuipulotu and Tomi Lewis, plus 10 points from Sam Costelow. However, indiscipline hindered their chances. Taine Plumtree and Gareth Davies both received yellow cards in the first half. Ulster capitalised on the extra space, sealing a well-deserved victory.
Ulster last played on February 15th when they faced Benetton. They made a strong start by scoring the opening try after three minutes. Nathan Doak converted his own try following a lineout break. Benetton responded with a try from Matt Gallagher after a breakdown in Ulster’s attack, and Tomas Albornoz added the conversion.
Ulster regained the lead when Mike Lowry intercepted an Albornoz pass and sprinted under the posts. Benetton closed the gap with a scrum penalty, and Ulster extended their lead with a try from Jacob Stockdale. Benetton’s late first-half try, converted by Albornoz, made it 19-17 at halftime.
The second half saw Ulster lose discipline, with David McCann, Nick Timoney, and Stewart Moore sin-binned. Benetton took advantage, with Albornoz kicking a penalty to give them the lead. A lineout try from replacement prop Spagnolo extended Benetton’s advantage. Foul play disallowed Matty Rea’s try, denying Ulster a bonus point. In the last play, Benetton sealed the win with a try from Alessandro Izekor, converting to make it 34-19. Ulster’s ill-discipline in the second half allowed Benetton to secure a dramatic comeback victory.
The Scarlets also played on February 15th, travelling to face Munster. Munster dominated possession with 75% of the ball, spending 84% of the game in the Scarlets’ half. Despite this, Scarlets’ disciplined defence kept them in the game for much of the first half. Munster thought they had scored early through Tom Ahern, but a knock-on ruled it out. After Scarlets’ Ioan Lloyd kicked a penalty, Munster’s pressure finally paid off with a try from Shay McCarthy following a slick line-out move.
The second half continued with Munster on the attack, and No. 8 Gavin Coombes scored their second try within minutes of the restart. Alex Kendellen added a third try shortly after, making it 19-3. Scarlets’ brightest moment came when replacement winger Macs Page scored a brilliant solo try, chipping over the full-back and gathering the ball to score.
However, Munster responded with Coombes’ second try before Shane Daly was yellow-carded for a high tackle. In the last play, Tom Farrell completed the win for Munster with a try in the corner. Scarlets struggled to cope with Munster’s relentless pressure, leaving the home side to secure a comprehensive victory.
