Ulster Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Preview
The United Rugby Championship is back following a four-week hiatus. The pause in club rugby was because of the Autumn Nations Series, which concludes this week. To mark the return to normality, Ulster welcomes Leinster to Ravenhill on Friday, November 29th at 7:35 pm.
The four-week break came at the right time for teams like Ulster. They had a very stop-start season, winning as many games as they lost. Leinster would have benefited from the break the least, given how many players went on international duty. They were on a six-game winning streak to mark the new campaign. Can they pick up where they left off after a month’s break?
Ulster Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Predictions
Score Prediction: Ulster 22-30 Leinster
The first game back after an international break is always difficult to predict in the URC. However, Leinster looked unstoppable in the six rounds before the pause in regular action. It seems likely they will pick up exactly where they left off against the Northern Irish side, cruising to a victory by eight points or more. Our rugby prediction this week is for Leinster to win.
Both teams last took to the field at the end of October. Leinster hosted the Lions, and they dominated in a low-scoring game by their standards. It finished 24-6 to the home side, and they kept the South Africans off the scoreboard in the entire second half.
Ulster’s last game came on the road against Cardiff. The Welsh side has also struggled this campaign, and it was a fantastic opportunity for the team from Belfast to get a win on the road. However, the hosts put up a sterner test than expected, completing a remarkable second-half turnaround. An early yellow card to Evan Lloyd allowed Ulster to sail into a 0-19 lead at halftime. David McCann went to the sin bin and Cardiff pounced, scoring three tries and finishing 21-19.
Friday night lights are back at Kingspan Stadium 🙌
🆚 Leinster
⌚️ 7.35pmVery limited tickets left 🎟️https://t.co/nW2lkyOlYs pic.twitter.com/DvDEyPHeQc
— Ulster Rugby (@UlsterRugby) November 25, 2024
The break in club action was needed for Ulster, as losing a 19-point lead is unacceptable in the URC. Leinster will know that even if they start slowly on Friday, they can claw their way back into the game against a spineless Ulster side. There is no doubt Ulster enters this game as the underdog on our sports betting site.
However, Ulster has two victories against Leinster in their past three meetings. Both wins have been by two points or fewer, but that should give the players hope they can cause an upset. No team has found a way past Leinster this season, but that is something most teams in the URC are familiar with. Last campaign, the Irish giants looked unstoppable for two-thirds of the season before falling off right when it mattered. This international break could disrupt their winning ways and be the perfect time for Ulster to strike.
If you are going to bet on the URC this weekend, you must be mindful that the teams have enjoyed a four-week break. Certain members of the squad will need a rest following international duty. This is also the time that players return from injury, which opens things right up across the league table. When Friday comes around, you could see a completely different Ulster side take on a sluggish Leinster pack.
Ulster Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Betting Tips
As this is the first United Rugby Championship fixture in over four weeks, placing a winning wager will be difficult. Betting on rugby is unpredictable at the best of times, but there is no way of knowing how the pause has affected each team. Our URC prediction is for Leinster to win, but you cannot underestimate a provincial rival.
Moneyline
Betting on Leinster is the most obvious choice for this week. They are the league leaders in the URC by six points and remain the only unbeaten team in the division. Backing Leinster to win at 4/7 is our pick for the moneyline. A €10 bet on the visitors would return €15.70, which is not the most profitable option at Novibet. You can back the underdog as it’s 6/4 for Ulster to win.
Handicap
According to our online sports betting site, little will separate the teams at full time. You can bet on Leinster with a -4 handicap at 10/11. That would give you €19.10 from a ten-euro wager. Backing Ulster at +4 is worth 3/4, which is an attractive option. We think if Leinster wins, it will be by eight points or more. However, if Ulster somehow gets a result, it will be by three points or fewer. So, betting on Ulster gives you more cover for a handicap bet.
Winning Margin
Backing Ulster to win by any market is risky, but if you want to go against the grain, the winning margin is the best way to do it. Ulster to win by one to seven points is worth 16/5 at Novibet. That means a €10 bet will yield €42 if the hosts pull off an upset. Choosing the Leinster winning margin will be tricky as it could be between 5-15 points. That is because we are not sure which Leinster side will turn up. If Leinster continues their league from earlier this campaign, it could even be a 15-point margin at the final whistle.
Ulster Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Head-To-Head and Key Stats
These two Irish rivals have faced each other countless times over the years. We are examining the most recent meetings to keep things relevant. In 2024, Ulster faced Leinster three times. The first game was on New Year’s Day and Ulster shocked the URC with a one-point win. The rematch took place in May, and Ulster once again pipped Leinster, this time by two points. When they met for the third time in June, it was business as usual for one of the best teams in world rugby.
The last time these clubs met in the URC was in June 2024. It was the URC playoff quarterfinal, and Ulster dreamed of beating their provincial rivals three times in a row. However, it was a nightmare start for the visitors who conceded two tries and a penalty in the opening 40 minutes without a reply. The second half was a more competitive affair as the teams traded scores, but Leinster outscored Ulster with four tries to three in the second half. It finished 43-20 and Ulster was blown out of the water.
Leinster lost the next game of the United Rugby Championship playoffs to the Bulls, but the team has come a long way since then. Many fans and pundits were critical of Leo Cullen last season, and rightfully so. However, he has silenced the critics so far in this campaign with six wins in a row. A win here is a must if he wants to avoid another crisis. If his side slips to defeat, they will have time to steady the ship before the do-or-die games later in the season. However, this will give the critical voices something to use against the team, even though Cullen signed a new two-year deal on November 20th.
So far this season, Leinster is the second-best team in the league when looking at offensive stats. They have the second most points, tries, and offloads across the six games. They have room to improve as they have only beaten 114 defenders and gained 2,207 meters. Ulster has 150 points, 24 tries, and 39 offloads this season. They are ahead in terms of defenders beaten but behind in meters gained with only 2,005. Leinster is the more dangerous side with the ball in hand, but how do they compare defensively?
Some positive news as 5⃣ players have returned to full training ahead of Friday night’s clash with Ulster.
🔗 Read the full injury report here: https://t.co/xlOq10Hg9p#FromTheGroundUp #ULSvLEI pic.twitter.com/eFAdHne3uu
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) November 25, 2024
Ulster is fifth in the league for defensive statistics, one place above Leinster. Ulster has a tackle success rate of 79% with 947 tackles made. They sit 11th in the division for turnovers lost with 69 and turnovers won with 33. Leinster has made 935 tackles but with more accuracy. They have an 81% success rate, which could be the difference on Friday. On paper, there is almost nothing between the sides. However, one team has won six games in a row and the other has lost as many as they have won.
Jacob Stockdale is the key man for Ulster, but he could still be away with the international team this weekend. Ireland plays Australia in the final round of the Autumn Nations Series, and both teams could be missing some key personnel. Several Leinster players have also featured on the international squad over the past month, and the majority of them will not travel back to their clubs in time for this game.
Ulster will be in a better position with fewer players away. However, they could miss their best player in this game. Leinster will also miss their top guns, but they have the depth and quality on the bench to overcome any deficit. Betting on this URC game will be incredibly difficult, as you never know who will line up and how they will play. Leinster should win this game as Ulster might lack the players to land a punch on the league leaders.
