Liverpool vs Manchester City Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 11/10/2026

Our prediction for this match leans towards Manchester City, and the numbers back it. Our model makes City 45% to win away from home, against 31% for Liverpool, with the draw at 24%. That 14-point edge is clear without being overwhelming, so City should head the Premier League odds as favourites but not as a certainty. The scoreline our model rates most likely is 1-2, a tight away win rather than a hammering, which is worth knowing before you touch any handicap. Strip out the draw and our model expects a winner 76% of the time. City or the draw together come to 69%, and for punters who want the visitors on side with a cushion, that is the figure worth remembering.

We're siding with City without going all in on them. Their 45% win chance is the strongest single outcome on the card, but the 1-2 scoreline our model fancies most shapes everything below. Our best bet is Manchester City or the draw at 69%, and we pair it with Liverpool on the handicap and goals over the line.

Both sides arrive unbeaten, but only one of them is winning everything. Manchester City have won each of their last five matches, scoring 14 and conceding 3, and they have taken maximum points from both league trips this season. That run includes a 5-3 win over Sunderland and a 5-0 over Norwich City, so this is a side that wins big once it gets going.

Liverpool's run looks sturdier on paper than it does at home. They are unbeaten in five with four wins, eight scored and two conceded, and they have won their last two against Bournemouth and Tottenham. Liverpool have drawn both their home league games this season, though, scoring and conceding one per home match. For punters, that home record is the reason we lean towards City or the draw rather than a Liverpool win.

The overall count flatters Liverpool, and we wouldn't lean on it. Liverpool have four wins to City's three across the last seven meetings, with no draws at all, but City have won the last three meetings, scoring nine and conceding one. The 4-0 in April 2026 and the 3-0 in November 2025 came at City, while their most recent visit to Liverpool ended 1-2. Two of Liverpool's wins date back to April 2018, which tells you very little about these squads. Seven meetings without a draw also backs our view that somebody wins this one.

The absences hurt Liverpool far more. Liverpool are without Cody Gakpo, their leading creator with three assists, along with the suspended Wataru Endo and Federico Chiesa, while Hugo Ekitiké is a doubt with an Achilles tendon rupture. City lose only Phil Foden to a red card suspension, and with Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo in form, they have the cover to absorb it.

The scoring load shows where each side is exposed. Alexander Isak has scored four of Liverpool's seven goals this season, so with Gakpo out, the home attack leans heavily on one man. City spread it around, with six different scorers led by Haaland's five and Cherki's three. In the anytime scorer market Haaland is the obvious pick, and his price reflects a striker already pushing his way into the conversation about the best Man City players ever. If you fancy Liverpool to score, Isak is the angle we prefer.

These numbers support goals at one end far more than the other. City outscore Liverpool by 1.2 goals a game, 2.6 against 1.4, while the gap at the back is just 0.2, with Liverpool conceding 0.8 and City 1. On their travels this league season City have scored 2.5 per away match and let in 0.5.

Liverpool's home league figures are flat by comparison, one scored and one conceded per game. Put together, that points to City scoring at least twice, which is why our predicted 1-2 sits comfortably alongside both the over and the Liverpool handicap.

For anyone betting in play, the second half is where this match should open up. Liverpool have scored three of their seven goals between the 46th and 60th minute and none at all between the 16th and 45th. City share that surge after the interval, with four of 13 in the same window, and they add four more in the final 15 minutes.

City have not conceded a single goal after the 60th minute this season, while Liverpool have let one in between the 61st and 75th. If the game is level at half-time, we'd leave City alone before the break and back them after the restart, when their price should be longer than that late record deserves.

Liverpool will see plenty of the ball and fire plenty of shots, but that does not make them value. They average 15.2 shots a game to City's 13.6, yet City land 40% of their shots on target, against Liverpool's 32%. That works out at 5.4 on target per match for City and 4.8 for Liverpool.

Possession is close, City on 63% and Liverpool on 59%, so expect a real scrap for the ball rather than one side sitting deep. A team that shoots more and hits the target less tends to get the crowd going without troubling the keeper, and that suits anyone holding the double chance on City.

The over 2.5 is a narrower call than our other picks, and the figures show why. City's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 60% of the time and Liverpool's 40%, leaving the card's average at 50%. Both teams have scored in 60% of City's games and 40% of Liverpool's, again averaging 50%.

Over 1.5 has landed in 60% of matches for both sides, while over 3.5 sits at 40% for each. Our 1-2 prediction lands exactly on three goals, so in over under betting we'd take over 2.5 rather than reach for 3.5. Both teams to score is a fair side bet too, given Liverpool's habit of finding a goal soon after half-time.

Liverpool are the side to follow in the card markets. Liverpool pick up 2.4 yellow cards a match, double City's 1.2, and commit 13.0 fouls to City's 10.6. Combined, that is 3.6 yellows and 23.6 fouls per game between them.

City have the only red card on the board at 0.2 a match, and it is the reason Foden misses this one. Corners lean City's way as well: they win 6.2 a game while Liverpool concede 4.4, and the two sides together average 10.2 won. For a side market, Liverpool to collect the most cards looks a better bet than chasing totals.

The streaks point the same way as our prediction. Manchester City have won five matches in a row, unbeaten across the same stretch. Liverpool are unbeaten in five too, but their winning run stands at two, three matches short of City's. That matters in Premier League betting because a side on a perfect run gets priced on it, so the value lies in the double chance rather than City outright.

City spread their goals around, with 38% before half-time and 31% after the 60th minute. Liverpool's 29% first-half share is the telling figure, since it means most of their goals arrive after the break, and that is exactly where we'd be watching the in-play market.