Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 11/10/2026

Our prediction leans towards Nottingham Forest, but only just. Our model gives the visitors 38% against 35% for Crystal Palace, with the draw on 27%, and 0-1 to Forest is the single most likely scoreline. A three-point gap is a nudge rather than a shove, and that matters for how you play it. Palace have lost both of their league games at home this season and conceded heavily in them, while Forest have yet to be beaten on the road. That away record is what tips the balance. Forest are hardly prolific, mind, and the last three meetings between these clubs all finished level. So we would sooner cover the draw than go all in on an away win, and the 65% the model hands Forest or the draw is the figure we keep coming back to.

Three angles stand out, and they all point to a tight game where Forest are hard to beat and Palace are hard to bury. Our best bet is Nottingham Forest or the draw at 65%, because it covers both the away win our model narrowly prefers and the stalemate this fixture keeps producing. The Premier League odds on a straight Forest win will tempt at 38%, but a 27% draw sits right behind it.

For over under betting, Palace games clear 2.5 goals 60% of the time and Forest games only 40%. We side with the Forest pattern, given their blunt attack and the forwards Palace are missing.

The callouts tell you where the value sits: Forest goals arrive late or not at all, and Palace are awkward to beat. Forest failed to score in 60% of their last five matches, which is why we are wary of backing them to win by any margin. When they do score, half of their goals have come after the 60th minute, so keep an eye on the Forest price if it is level at the hour. On the other side, Palace are unbeaten in 80% of their last five, and that makes a heavy away win look unlikely.

The form lines split depending on where you look. Palace's last five read three wins, a draw and a defeat, with 12 goals scored and 5 conceded, but a 4-0 against Lech Poznań and a 3-0 against Middlesbrough pad that run. Palace have lost both of their Premier League home games this season, conceding 3.5 per home match, and that is the stat that worries us most for the home side.

Forest look worse at a glance: one win, two draws and two defeats, four goals scored and six conceded, and they come in off a 1-0 defeat to Coventry City. Yet Forest have not lost away from home in the league this season, taking a win and a draw from two trips and scoring 2 per away match. Their goals have dried up overall at 0.8 a game, but on the road they have carried more threat, which explains why our model trusts them slightly more here.

History says draw, and loudly. Three of the last four meetings finished 1-1, and the only result with a winner in that run was Forest's 1-0 in October 2024. Palace have not beaten Forest in any of those four games, which takes some shine off a home win punt.

Two of those draws came at Palace's ground, in May and August 2025, and the most recent was at Forest last February. Not one of the four games produced more than two goals, which backs our under call. If you want a bigger price than the double chance, the draw at 27% has plenty of history behind it.

The absence list is lopsided. Palace are without five players while Forest report none. Jean-Philippe Mateta's hamstring injury removes a focal point, Axel Disasi is suspended after his red card, Anan Khalaili has a muscle strain, Chadi Riad is out after knee surgery and Takehiro Tomiyasu has calf problems, so Honest Ahanor comes into our projected back three. Khalaili scored one of Palace's six league goals, so the attacking load falls even more heavily on Tyrick Mitchell and Daichi Kamada. Forest can pick from a full squad, and Gibbs-White, Murillo, Sels and Neco Williams have played every minute so far.

Neither side has one of the best Premier League strikers right now leading the line, so the creators matter more than usual. Palace lean on Tyrick Mitchell for goals and Daichi Kamada for the final pass. With Mateta out, Kamada's three assists, matching the league's best tally, make him Palace's most important attacker. Forest's four league goals came from four different players, which says plenty about their bluntness. Morgan Gibbs-White has scored or set up three of those four goals, and Murillo has played every minute at the back.

The goal averages make the case for a modest total. Palace concede 2.2 goals per match while Forest score just 0.8, so a leaky defence meets a blunt attack and the two partly cancel out. Palace score 1.2 a game and Forest concede 1, so neither side looks set to run riot.

Blend each attack with the opposing defence and you land somewhere around two and a half goals. In football betting terms, that is why under 2.5 is a value call rather than a banker. The warning sign is Palace's home record of 3.5 conceded per home match. It comes from only two games, but it is why we stop short of backing Palace to keep a clean sheet.

The clock matters in this one, and it rewards patience. Forest have not conceded a single first-half goal in the league this season: all five against them came after the break, two of them in the final quarter of an hour. Palace are the opposite, letting in nine of their eleven before the hour mark, including three in the last 15 minutes of the first half and three more in the first 15 after it.

Forest's attack is slow to start as well, with nothing scored in the opening quarter hour. So if it is goalless at the break, do not panic about an under bet. Forest score and concede late, so any Forest goal is most likely to come in the second half.

Forest shoot far more often but hit the target no more often, and that is the crux of their struggles. Forest average 16.4 shots per match but only 3.4 on target, a 21% hit rate, while Palace manage 3.6 on target from just 10.6 attempts. That makes Palace the more clinical side by a distance, even with less of the ball: 43% possession against Forest's 47%.

Neither side dominates possession, so expect a scrappy game played on the break rather than a siege. Forest's volume will shorten their sports betting odds in the shots markets. On goals, though, both sides create roughly the same genuine danger, which keeps the Palace handicap looking good value.

This is the section that persuaded us to go under. The two clubs' over 2.5 rates average out at 50%, but that average hides the story: Palace matches have gone over 3.5 goals 60% of the time, Forest matches only 20%. One of these sides plays in shootouts and the other grinds, and we think the Forest style wins the argument at Selhurst Park, given their defence and the forwards Palace are missing.

Forest games have cleared 1.5 goals only 40% of the time, against 80% for Palace. Both teams to score comes out at 50% on the combined figure, which is too close to call, so we leave that market alone. Under 2.5 is the cleaner way to back the low-scoring pattern this fixture has shown in every recent meeting.

Forest are the side to follow in the cards market. Forest commit 15 fouls and pick up 2.6 yellow cards per match, well clear of Palace's 9.6 fouls and 1.5 bookings. Palace carry the red card risk, though, averaging 0.3 a game, and Disasi's suspension is a fresh reminder of it.

Combined, the two sides average 4.1 yellows and 24.6 fouls per match, so the referee should have a busy game. On corners, Forest win 3.4 a game to Palace's 2.4. Palace also concede 4.8 corners per match, which makes Forest the stronger pick in any corner handicap.

The trend lines point to a late, cagey game. Nottingham Forest score 50% of their goals after the 60th minute and concede 60% in that same window, so their matches tend to come alive in the final half hour. Only 25% of their goals arrive in the first half. Palace's scoring is spread more evenly, with 33% of their goals before the break and 33% after the hour, and they concede only 18% of theirs late on.

Palace are unbeaten in their last two, a short run that followed the defeat to Ipswich. In play, the pattern says hold fire early. If Forest are level at the hour, the live betting price on them to nick it should still be generous, and those late numbers show a habit of finding something.