Liverpool v Chelsea Prediction, Betting Tips and H2H 28/10/2026

Our soccer predictions for this match heavily favour Liverpool. Our model predicts that the hosts have a 49% chance of winning, compared with 28% for Chelsea. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 to Liverpool, but it could be worse for the visitors given their poor performance against Spurs at the Bridge.

Liverpool have won four in a row, scoring 14 goals in their last five games. That includes a delightful 2-0 home victory over the high-flying Seagulls. This represents a massive shift in mentality, following the 3-0 home drubbing by Manchester City some weeks ago.

Carabao Cup betting always presents opportunities, and this fixture is no exception. Liverpool have struggled at Anfield recently, including one win from four and an average of a single goal per game. Chelsea haven’t drawn a single away league game this season, and have two wins and two losses on the road. They have conceded an average of 1.88 goals per game this season, which could get worse if they fail to turn up in the cup.

If you look at the recent history between these clubs, there have been a few 0-0s. However, a goalless draw feels especially unlikely given the new managers in both dugouts. Andoni Iraola felt the pressure of the home fans early in the campaign but has since steadied the ship. Xabi Alonso started brightly but is now feeling the pressure. Our model suggests there is a 77% chance that there is a winner during regular time.

Punters examining the football betting markets should note that we predict goals. Chelsea average 1.5 goals per game, and most have seen over 2.5. Betting on over 2.5 goals in this cup fixture has a 62% chance of winning, and over half of the Blues’ matches involve both teams scoring. While the Reds started the season slowly, they look lethal in front of goal again.

Both teams have injury concerns. Six players are on Liverpool’s injury list, with one doubt, compared to Chelsea’s four. The hosts average more shots per game, with 15.4 against 13.4. However, the visitors test the keeper more often with a 40% on-target ratio. While the stats look good for the Blues, the odds on our sportsbook say otherwise. It seems unlikely that Chelsea will bounce back after a poor performance against Tottenham.

A high-flying Chelsea does the damage early in the game, with 7 of their 17 goals coming inside the first 15 minutes. However, that would require a slow start from the hosts, who have conceded one early goal in the league all season. The price of a Liverpool comeback will be interesting if they concede early, opening up the possibility of live betting on a 2-1 result.

As mid-week EFL fixtures go, this one will have the most attention. The pressure will be on Chelsea to get something at Anfield after disappointment in the league. Liverpool have weathered the early storm and look better for it heading into this match. Betting on the visitors to win seems incredibly risky, as you never know which Chelsea will get off that bus. That leaves only one likely outcome: the Reds winning in front of a home crowd.