Italy v Argentina Predictions, Betting Tips & H2H 14/11/2026

There are plenty of exciting fixtures in this week’s Nations Championship, but our eyes will be on Italy versus Argentina. Our rugby predictions favour the South Americans to win in a tight but exciting match. We think the Italians will remain in the contest, losing 28-30 at the final whistle.

Our model has the visitors as the marginal favourites with a 52% chance of victory. Neither side has won a match in their last five games, but it's the Europeans with the worst form. Argentina has one draw in their recent matches; their last test against Australia finished 28-28. With little to separate the teams on paper, over/under betting or other similar markets could offer more value.

In close rugby matches, going under is often the sensible play. However, all six fixtures involving these sides cleared 40.5 this season. Italy’s last three matches included some brutal scorelines, with all three totalling over 60 points. Going for over 50.5 is an option, as neither side has a reliable record at keeping out tries.

However, where the over/under could fall flat on its face is the offensive output. The Italians are averaging just 11.3 points per game, and Los Pumas are not much better at 20.3 points. However, the Argentines are sticking closer to the opposition, with an average defeat of seven points or fewer in three of their last five matches. Handicap betting is a more attractive option, as Italy +7.5 would be a winner if our predicted scoreline comes true.

Argentina has also been the better side historically. Looking at the head-to-head, they have outscored the Italians 87 to 34 and have won the last two meetings. Interestingly, both matches averaged over 60.5 points, which could be a good sign for punters looking at the betting odds of a high-scoring contest.

While Italy has produced some shocks in recent years, including the 23-18 victory over England in the 2026 Six Nations, we don't see one on the cards this weekend. Argentina might be without a win in five, but they got a draw out of Australia and beat Wales a few months back. They have slightly more momentum heading into this clash.

Overall, we are backing the visitors. Betting on South American sides is not usually a good idea, but when they are facing one of Europe's worst sides, it feels like the better option. The Argentines are not a sure thing and will have to outwork the Italians on the road. However, that's exactly what we see happening. Argentina will make a stronger start and maintain a lead throughout. We don't think Italy has the firepower or ability to contain the visitors.