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Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Brian Hughes’ Novibet.ie blog: Constitution Hill would beat Honeysuckle on figures, but that’s not reality

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I can see why the potential matchup between Constitution Hill and Honeysuckle is capturing so much attention. Constitution Hill was very impressive, and I know he clocked a very high Timeform rating, but I think the race was set up for him more so than the Champion Hurdle was for Honeysuckle. In the Supreme, he was able to stretch on off a good gallop and leave many of his rivals unable to get into the race, whereas the Champion Hurdle was a lot slower and she just had to get the race won.

People are always trying to find holes in horses that are proven, like Honeysuckle, but the fact is she keeps turning up and keeps winning the top races. Constitution Hill would beat her on the figures, but that’s not reality.

Honeysuckle has a wealth of experience and success in the top-flight races, while Constitution Hill has only had three runs over hurdles and it’s a big jump up out of novice company. I’d be very surprised if Nicky Henderson ran him against her at Punchestown.

I thought the Gold Cup was a good renewal and, like many, was proven wrong by A Plus Tard seeing out the trip. The drying ground probably helped him, and he was clearly very well trained for the day.
For Henry de Bromhead to have back-to-back 1-2s in the Gold Cup is a phenomenal achievement and everyone connected to the yard should be congratulated.

And credit to Rachael Blackmore for sticking with her horse. She went with him last year, and it didn’t work out, but she obviously knows both horses well and made the right call this time.

Geronimo stars in Carlisle treble

We’ve had some beautiful weather in the UK across the past week and that means the ground is really drying up. It’s good for the horses that want it, but many of the summer horses aren’t ready to run on it so we might be seeing quite a few small fields over the coming days.

Donald [McCain] has had to pull a few out this weekend because of it, which is a shame because I thought they were good chances, but I’ve still got a good book of rides over the coming days.
I had a good treble at Carlisle last Sunday, where Geronimo made a brilliant debut over fences.
He was giving his two rivals plenty of weight and I don’t think he was particularly suited by the undulating track at Carlisle, but he beat them easily.

He likes top of the ground conditions, and I think he’s certainly up to winning another one sooner rather than later.

Top chances as we chase 200

Over the coming days I’ve got a busy schedule of rides at Musselburgh (Friday), Kelso (Saturday) and Carlisle (Sunday), as we continue to hunt down the 200 wins milestone. One of my best chances on the Friday looks like being Latino Fling in the mares’ series final (3:30pm). You can ignore her last run, where she was keen early and met trouble in running, and I think she has every chance of bouncing back. The ground is in her favour, and I think there’s still a bit of mileage in her mark.

Garde Des Champs should be in the shakeup in the novices’ handicap hurdle (4:05pm) if he can take another step forward from his two runs in the UK so far, though Fergal O’Brien’s City Derby could be the one to beat.

I know the yard are quite sweet on the chances of Sawpit Samantha in the mares’ bumper (4:40pm), which looks a pretty open race. Supposedly she’s working nicely at home, so I’m looking forward to that one.

On Saturday, it’s hard to be too confident as the racing is so competitive, as it should be with some big pots up for grabs, but I’ve certainly got chances.
Taragrace has won her last two and gets weight all-round in the mares’ novices’ hurdle series final (3:15pm). She’s still improving and is at the right end of the handicap, but she’ll need to take a good step forward to come out on top in such a competitive race.

I ride Ri Na Farraige in the bumper (4:21pm) for Richard Fahey. He won a nice race on the all-weather and then ran well again to finish second after a quick turnaround. He’s got to shoulder a penalty, but the drying ground will suit him and he’s a nice type.

On Sunday, Armattiekan lines up in the two-mile chase (2:26pm) and will appreciate the return to better ground. He’s a little more exposed than some of his rivals, but conditions will suit and he should run his race.

It’s the same kind of story for Monsieur Co in 2m4f handicap chase (3:36pm).
Again, it’s a very competitive race due to the prize money on offer, but he’s got a live outside chance.
He’s run to a higher level than this in the past but hasn’t got his head in front for a little while.

Masked Crusader is probably one of my best chances of the whole weekend in the novices’ hurdle (1:53pm).

He needed the run first time up, having not been with Donald for too long and not been pushed too hard at home, and he then came on massively for that to win on his second start. He’s a big, unfurnished fella who should appreciate the step up in trip, and he’s one to look out for over fences next season too.

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