Connacht Rugby vs Dragons RFC Preview
Connacht will play the Dragons in the United Rugby Championship this weekend. The Irish province is currently in 7th place while Newport languishes in 14th. They’ll meet on Saturday 26th at 7:35 pm at the Dexcom Stadium.
Fans of both teams hope they will be in the playoffs at the end of the season. However, it’s been an uninspiring start for the Dragons. On the other hand, Connacht is always competitive but struggles to get over the line against the big guns. The Irish team can’t afford any slip-ups at home to Dragons RFC if they want to make the knockout stage.
Connacht Rugby vs Dragons RFC Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Connacht has started this season in decent form. They’ve only won two of their opening five games, but this doesn’t tell the full story. The Westerners were very unlucky to lose against Ulster in a pulsating 32-27 clash. They’ve also lost to Munster and Leinster in the URC so far.
However, they have victories over the Sharks and Scarlets. The nature of their performances also gives fans hope that they’ll remain competitive throughout the season. It’s a different situation for the Dragons who’ve only got a single win so far. They beat the Ospreys in their season opener. Since then, they’ve lost four straight games, with the most recent being a defeat against Benetton.
Connacht has won six of their past ten games against the Dragons, including the last two instalments. Their most recent victory over the Welsh region was a 34-27 thriller at Rodney Parade. It’s worth noting the Dragons defeated Connacht in Galway in 2021, so it wouldn’t be their first victory at Dexcom Stadium.
Ben Murphy is the URC’s joint top-scorer this season with four tries. The Connacht star offers a threat to every opponent. Taine Basham has three for the Dragons or a quarter of their 12 tries. The Welsh team is one of the few teams yet to break the 100-point threshold this season. They only have 99 so far.
Connacht is more prolific than their opponents. They’re fourth in the scoring table with 132 points and 19 tries. The imminent return of Mack Hansen will only add to their firepower. Pete Wilkin’s men have beaten 122 defenders too. Only the Glasgow Warriors rank higher.
One area where Connacht is struggling is at fly-half. JJ Hanrahan continues his recovery from an ACL injury. Currently, Josh Ioane is the starter while Jack Carty is on the bench. However, Ioane has missed key kicks against several opponents this season and must improve.
Connacht Rugby vs Dragons RFC Predictions
Predicted Score: Connacht 35–17 Dragons
Our rugby prediction is that Connacht will win this URC game in style. The Westerners are one of the most enjoyable teams in the league. Even when they lose, they’re always in entertaining clashes. However, we think they have too much firepower and quality for this match. Dragon’s form is also very poor and we don’t think they’ll be able to live with Connacht.
Mack Hansen’s return could change Connacht’s season. The Ireland winger is box office when he’s fit but has endured frustrating injury problems over the past two years. If Pete Wilkins can keep him available, it will make a massive difference to their playoff hopes. Ben Murphy has started this season well, so Connacht has options without him.
Newport’s pack struggled badly against Benetton last weekend. This is an area where Connacht could dominate. The Irish province possesses superb physicality across their team. The likes of Bundee Aki and Finlay Bealham are two of their standout players. They could overwhelm the Dragons with their power.
Connacht’s main weakness is at fly-half. Josh Ioane has yet to convince fans he’s the answer. They dearly miss JJ Hanrahan’s consistency in the position. Lloyd Evans is superior to Connacht’s current options. His kicking could be crucial if this is closer than we expect.
Dragons boss Dai Flanagan has some good news because a clutch of players are returning from injury. However, the tough part is knowing who to start. There’s a feeling that he doesn’t know his best lineup yet. Connacht is a more settled side and should ease to victory.
This Saturday at Dexcom Stadium 🏉
🎟️ https://t.co/7PD1ex9RKd#ConnachtRugby pic.twitter.com/qz4F95X1x3
— Connacht Rugby (@connachtrugby) October 23, 2024
Five Dragons and Connacht players have received yellow cards this season, including Bundee Aki and Santiago Cordero. Both teams also had one player earn red cards. We predict at least one sin bin in this match. Discipline is an issue for these sides and could prove costly.
Shane Lewis-Hughes is a key player for the Dragons with seven turnovers. Meanwhile, Rio Dyer has beaten 17 defenders but needs more end product. Shayne Bolton has gone past 15 and is in superb form for Connacht.
Monitor the live betting markets because one clean break or poorly timed yellow card can change everything. Connacht are substantial favourites, but Dragons RFC always have an upset in them. It would be typical of Connacht to lose this game.
Connacht Rugby vs Dragons RFC Betting Tips
Connacht is a significant favourite to win this match on our sports betting site. It’s 1/16 for them to win outright. This is somewhat surprising because they’re an erratic team. We believe they will win, but these odds are too wide. A €10 bet would only make €0.63 if successful.
This isn’t worthwhile, but luckily there are many more rugby markets to choose from. Consider handicap betting because it can deliver improved odds and a higher profit. It’s 2/5 for the Westerners to win with a -11.5 handicap. This still isn’t amazing, but it’s better than betting on Connacht on the moneyline.
Another option is to choose the winning margin. It’s 1/2 for Connacht to win by 15 or more points, which would deliver a 50% profit from your original stake. We advise backing Connacht with a handicap alongside a prop bet to enhance your potential earnings.
An over-under bet could be lucrative. Consider betting on the number of points in this game. Our score prediction shows that we believe there will be over 50. Connacht should enjoy a bonus point win. Don’t forget that the Dragons have several big names returning for this clash, so it may not be as simple as the oddsmakers think.
Nobody is infallible in the United Rugby Championship as we saw when Zebre smashed Munster a few weeks ago. Dragons could win this tie and make punters a huge profit. It’s 15/2 for them to win, yielding €75 from €10. Remember, their most recent victory over Connacht was in Galway, and an escape from Rodney Parade may help them.
Forde-tress Breaking Through Defense!📷
Cathal Forde scores a magical try for @connachtrugby – stuff of legends!#BKTURC #URC | #CONvLEI pic.twitter.com/xWxeHb5AFE
— BKT United Rugby Championship (URC) (@URCOfficial) October 19, 2024
Check out the individual player markets when betting on the URC. We think Ben Murphy could extend his try-scoring run. We also believe that Mack Hansen will greet fans with a score on his return. Taine Basham is a dependable player for Dragons RFC and could snatch a try for them. We predict Connacht will win both halves.
Players can wager on odd/even match total points and the number of cards. Alternatively, consider looking beyond this game. Ulster will play the Cardiff Blues in what should be a more competitive clash. Undefeated Leinster hosts the Lions, while you can bet on Munster to win as they also face South African opposition in The Sharks.
Connacht Rugby Team News and Predicted Lineup
The big news for Connacht is that Mack Hansen should recover in time for this game. However, Pete Wilkins may ease him back into action, so we may see him as a late replacement. Dave Heffernan is a doubt but will start if fit. The fly-half battle remains intriguing. Josh Ioane should receive another chance to prove himself ahead of Jack Carty but is under pressure.
- Connacht Predicted Lineup: Piers O’Conor, Shayne Bolton, David Hawkshaw, Bundee Aki, Santiago Cordero, Josh Ioane, Ben Murphy, Denis Buckley, Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham, Joe Joyce, Darragh Murray, Cian Prendergast, Sean O’Brien, and Paul Boyle.
Dragons RFC Team News and Predicted Lineup
Dai Flanagan’s side struggled with injuries over the past few weeks. Backs Cai Evans and Jordan Williams will return, bringing a much-needed boost to the side. They’re in contention to make their first appearances of the URC season. Aaron Wainwright and George Nott are also available.
- Dragons Predicted Lineup: Angus O’Brien, Rio Dyer, Joe Westwood, Aneurin Owen, Jared Rosser, Lloyd Evans, Rhodri Williams, Rodrigo Martinez, Brodie Coghlan, Leon Brown, Shane Lewis-Hughes, Ben Carter, Ryan Woodman, Harri Keddie, and Taine Basham.
