United Rugby Championship

Glasgow Warriors v Lions

Glasgow come in unbeaten in four and second in the table, while the Lions have lost both away trips this season by a combined 63 points. Our model projects a 33-21 home win, and Glasgow to win at 73% is our strongest call on the card, carrying four out of five for confidence.

Stormers v Ulster Rugby

Stormers at home are the side to back. Our model gives them a 74% chance and projects a 33-21 win. They've won both home games this season, scoring 52 and 39. Ulster arrive without a win in five, and they've collected a draw and a defeat from their two away trips.

Connacht Rugby v Leinster Rugby

Over 40.5 points is our strongest play at 83%. Five of the last six matches involving these clubs cleared the line. All three of Connacht's recent games went over, and two of Leinster's three did too. Our model expects 47 points, which leaves a cushion of nearly a converted try.

Munster Rugby v Sharks

Our model gives Munster a 56% chance of winning and projects 26-22, the exact score from their last home game against the Bulls. Their form is patchy, with two games without a win, and the Sharks took both recent meetings. Home ground and a venue sample of 23 matches are what tip it their way.