Italy v France Predictions, Betting Tips & H2H 12/11/2026

Italy faces France in Milan this week in Round 5 of the Nations League. Our soccer predictions favour the French side winning by one goal to nil. We expect France to do one better than the 1-1 draw in early October. According to our model, the hosts have a 32% chance of winning compared to 43% for the visitors.

Our predicted scoreline is 1-0, as France have won both their away games in the Nations League by this margin. Italy has only played two home games this season, including one loss and one win. This will be a good test for both teams as they have both failed to live up to expectations in recent performances.

The Nations League odds have shifted since the first round of fixtures over a month ago. Across these matches, France have conceded an average of 0.5 goals per game. That is a damn sight better than the Italians with 1.25. However, both sides enter after convincing wins. Italy demolished Turkey, and France outworked Belgium 4-1. A defeat against the French could send Italy into the relegation playoffs from League A, Group 1, as Belgium are only a single point behind.

If you want to avoid calling a winner, over/under betting is a great option. While every Italian fixture has cleared over 1.5 goals, most French matches have seen under 2.5. The head-to-head favours Les Bleus, with two 3-1 victories in the past four meetings. Italy has one 3-1 victory, and the most recent match was a 1-1 draw. While this fixture has seen plenty of goals in recent years, we would back under 2.5 as these sides will cancel each other out.

What could be the difference is who grabs this game by the horns. Michael Olise is one of the best right wingers in the world. He has dazzled for Bayern Munich since his move, and he has the chance to cement himself in the national team. That is important, as players like Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé add incredible depth and competition. France certainly has the more dangerous-looking squad on paper.

Handicap betting is a tougher one to pick. As we see this as a 1-0 game, or even a potential 1-1 repeat, it makes sense to back the hosts. Betting on Italy +1.5 will provide the cover needed if our prediction is right. A narrow France win, a draw, or an unlikely home victory are all winning situations for this market.

From the Neutral perspective, this is a great fixture. Not just for opportunities as sports betting fans, but because it is much more of a coin toss than it has been in recent years. Italy has struggled internationally, including failing to qualify for major international tournaments. France was one of the best teams in the world a few years ago; now, they are only marginal favourites against the Italians.

Betting against Italy feels like the most likely option, as predicting a French loss on the road has not been worthwhile recently. Italy has already dropped points at home this season to Belgium, and we expect that to continue. France winning 1-0 is our best bet, but do not overlook another 1-1 draw.