Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig Preview
Bo Nickal will fight Paul Craig in a big middleweight clash this Saturday, November 16. Nickal is one of the most exciting UFC prospects today. However, he’s facing a big test in one of the division’s most experienced gatekeepers.
It’s a return to action for Bo Nickal after a second-round submission victory over Cody Brundage last April. He’s a massive favourite to beat Craig, but this is a dangerous match-up. ‘The Bear Jew’ is the most experienced fighter he will have ever fought. This fight is going to tell us plenty about Nickal’s level.
Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig Key Stats and Head-to-Head
A decorated college and freestyle wrestler, Bo Nickal signed with the UFC in 2022 after back-to-back Contender Series victories. He started his career with some highlight reel finishes. However, his momentum dipped because he’s not very active. Nor is he fighting the biggest names in the world.
Nickal has a 6-0 record and is coming off a victory over Cody Brundage. His opponent made life awkward for him in round one. Brundage avoided multiple takedowns before he finally brought him down. He survived until the second round before Bo secured another takedown and sank in the rear-naked choke.
Paul Craig is one of the most confusing MMA fighters today. The big Scot has an outstanding Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base. However, his striking defence is atrocious and cost him dearly in his past few fights. Nonetheless, he’s capable of winning out of nothing. We’ve seen him submit former champion Jamahal Hill and top contender Magomed Ankalaev.
However, it appears that the 36-year-old is suffering a major downturn. He currently has a 17-8 record with four defeats in his past five. Two of those losses were knockouts, while another was a submission. Caio Borralho finished him in the second round of their bout in Rio De Janeiro. Craig’s last victory was a TKO over Andre Muniz in July 2023.
Bo Nickal absolutely starched Val Woodburn. Uppercut from Hades 🥊 pic.twitter.com/sSA3W4yYjH
— Liam Picks Fights (@LiamPicksFights) November 7, 2024
Nickal is eight years younger than Craig at 28. We all know that he has phenomenal wrestling. The American Top Team fighter also has an elite finishing threat. He has a 100% finishing record with four submissions and two knockouts. Much is made of Craig’s submission threat, but it would be foolish to underrate Bo.
However, there’s no doubt that Craig is a much more experienced MMA fighter than Nickal. He’s also excellent off his back, giving him a chance in every fight. Bo Nickal must exercise caution in case he runs into one of the Scot’s traps.
Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig Predictions
Fight Prediction: Bo Nickal to win by TKO
Nickal is a massive favourite to win this fight on our sports betting platform. We think the odds are very wide because this is a significant step up in competition for the American fighter. He’s fighting a very unconventional and experienced operator in Craig. Nonetheless, our MMA prediction is that Bo Nickal will win this fight.
The former Penn State star is a superior athlete to Craig and appears to be catching the Scottish gatekeeper in decline. His conditioning is superb, and he’s going to pour pressure on Craig. He must be cautious if this fight goes to the ground, but we think he’ll stay standing.
Nickal may use his elite takedown threat to set up a massive overhand right. We’re looking at how he demolished Val Woodburn at UFC 290. He has superb power and Craig has limited striking defence. This could be an early night for the former light-heavyweight contender.
Sometimes fighters worry too much about wrestlers shooting. We saw how Khabib Nurmagomedov knocked down Conor McGregor. We can see Nickal achieving something similar against Craig. The Scottish fighter’s chin is starting to fail him, so this could be a very effective strategy.
However, make no mistake, Craig offers a serious submission threat. Nickal can’t rush into takedowns because Craig could catch him by surprise. The signs don’t point this way because he’s on a significant skid. Four defeats in five fights suggest that the writing is on the wall for Craig.
Paul Craig submits Magomed Ankalaev in the last second of round 3
Magomed’s debut UFC fight was going to plan, he was up on all the judges scorecards and was 1 second away from wining his first fight in the UFC.
But Paul Craig had other ideas and caught Magomed in a triangle. pic.twitter.com/f2UHAv8sb1
— Bry The MMA Guy (@BryTheMMAguy) December 13, 2023
Many outlets fixate on Craig’s submission threat. However, Nickal is an elite grappler with a history of finishing opponents. Brendan Allen submitted Craig and nobody would argue that he’s better on the ground than Bo Nickal. Craig may pull guard and try to pull him into a submission. The former US National Champion could reverse the position or trap him in full mount.
Check out the live betting during this fight. Nickal is a top fighter, but he’s still quite green. Maybe Craig will shock him with a big early right hand. The odds are wide but may close if he experiences early adversity. Many fans would like to see that because the American is cruising through fights right now.
Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig Betting Tips
Nickal is a massive favourite to win this fight. This is leading some outlets to say that the bookmakers are setting him up for failure. We think he will win, but Craig is a live underdog in our eyes. That’s why betting on Craig winning offers much better value. It’s currently 6/1 for the Scottish fighter to defeat the American.
A €10 stake could make a massive €60 profit. Craig has a path to victory in this fight. We’ve seen him do it before. It could be hazardous if he can lure Nickal into one of his traps. That’s why these odds may be too tempting for some players to look past. It’s a risky wager but potentially a worthwhile one.
However, Nickal is the favourite for a reason. He’s a younger man on an upward trajectory and has a superb athletic base. Most people aren’t going to back him to win outright at 1/11. It’s not profitable enough because €10 would only make €0.91. Luckily, there are many other MMA markets to choose from.
Check out the method of victory because this is more lucrative. We can see this fight going a couple of ways, but we’re predicting Nickal will win by KO/TKO. The upcoming UFC star packs a ferocious punch. It often happens that two grapplers end up cancelling each other out and fighting a glorified kickboxing match.
Furthermore, Craig has several recent knockout losses on his record. Chins doesn’t recover at his age, so this is a serious risk for him. We don’t give the Scot much hope on the feet. Yes, he once out-struck the ghost of Shogun Rua, but he depended on his chin for too long. Now he can’t absorb the same punishment.
The grappling will be fascinating in this fight. Craig’s best hope of victory is by submission. Watch out for his patented triangle choke. He has finished eight opponents with this submission across his career, including Nikita Krylov and Ankalaev. Craig also likes the rear-naked choke.
Perhaps surprisingly, we think Nickal is more likely to win by submission. It’s possible he takes Craig down, inflicts ground-and-pound, and then sinks into the choke. We can’t see this fight going to a decision. Someone is going to get another clip for their highlight reel.
Bo Nickal: I win one or two more fights, then I'm fighting a ranked guy, then I'm fighting a top guy, then I'm fighting for the belt. #HelwaniShow pic.twitter.com/iRjM9USTX3
— Jed I. Goodman © (@jedigoodman) November 11, 2024
Another option is an over-under bet on how far this fight will go. We think Nickal could win this fight in under 1.5 rounds. Craig will do well to survive past this. This fight will tell us if the American is the real deal because Craig is no mug.
There are many other UFC fights this weekend. You can bet on Jon Jones in his fight against Stipe Miočić for the heavyweight title. This is an unmissable bout because it may be the last time we see both legends. Meanwhile, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler clash in an unexpected rematch. Why not select your favourite match-ups and create an accumulator?
Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig Outcome
The stakes are huge for both men ahead of this fight. Nickal wants to build some momentum as he marches toward a ranked UFC opponent. A victory over Craig would take him very close. We like a potential match-up with the former ONE two-weight champion, Reiner De Ridder. RDR called him out after his victory over Gerhard Meerschaert last weekend.
Craig knows that this is a win-or-bust fight for him. Three defeats in a row could end his UFC career. It would be a shame to see the fan-favourite leave the UFC, but it would be very likely. However, we’d love to see the spectacle of him fighting RDR too.
