Scotland v New Zealand Prediction
Verified 03/11/2026.
Scotland v New Zealand Betting Tips
Selections suggested by our editorial team
Over 40.5 points (100%)
This is the strongest number on our card. All six recent matches across both sides cleared 40.5 points, and the lowest of them was Scotland's 33-17 win over Fiji with 50 points in total. The two head-to-head meetings produced 42 and 54, and our model projects 59 here.
Scotland +9.5 (70%)
Scotland have lost both recent meetings with New Zealand, but each of those defeats came by exactly eight points, which sits inside this line. Our model has the hosts winning 32-27 and gives the handicap a 70% chance. A Scottish win, a draw or a defeat by up to nine points all land it.
Scotland to win (56%)
Our numbers make Scotland narrow favourites at 56%, with New Zealand on 43%. Scotland have won both of their home Tests this season, while New Zealand have lost three of their five away from home. That road record is why we lean towards the hosts, even with the head-to-head going the other way.
Odds can change. Check the sportsbook for the latest odds before you bet.
Verified 03/11/2026.
UpcomingScotland v New Zealand Betting Odds
Match result
Total
Other lines (2)
Handicap
Odds can change. Check the sportsbook for the latest odds before you bet.
Scotland v New Zealand Key Stats
Verified 03/11/2026.
Scotland v New Zealand Recent Form
v Scotland17–33W
v Scotland42–28L
v Scotland38–47W
v New Zealand21–43W v Australia50–19W v New Zealand43–28LVerified 03/11/2026.
Scotland v New Zealand Head-to-Head
Last 2 meetings
v New Zealand17–25 v New Zealand23–31Verified 03/11/2026.
Scotland and New Zealand Match Preview
Our rugby predictions for Scotland vs New Zealand lean towards the hosts. We predict the Scots will edge a competitive contest 32-27 against the All Blacks. However, any bets against one of the best teams on the planet are always risky. You might find better value wagering on the scoreboard rather than the winner.
We are most confident with over/under betting. All six of the recent fixtures involving either team went over 40.5 points. Plus, none of these games narrowly cleared the margin. Scotland’s last three fixtures saw 50, 70, and 85 points on the board. New Zealand was just as impressive with over 60 points across their three matches.
Looking at the stats of both teams reveals an interesting trend. The hosts are leaking 32.3 points per game and face a team scoring 40.3 points per match. Going for something high, such as over 55.5, could be a great starting point for sports betting fans in this game.
You can increase the value of your wager by opting for a handicap bet. New Zealand won the last two meetings, and both ended with eight-point margins. According to our model, Scotland +9.5 has a 70% chance of success.
The All Blacks have not travelled well so far this year. They have won two of five away tests, including a humbling 43-28 defeat to South Africa. Any trip to the northern hemisphere will be tough for this current New Zealand side, especially given the cold conditions expected this week at Murrayfield.
The rugby betting odds have been kind to the Scots, as they have two home wins this year. Their recent games have all been on the road, with convincing wins over Argentina and Fiji but a 42-28 defeat to South Africa. Getting two victories on their travels is respectable, especially with over seven points between the sides in three of their last five.
Anyone betting on the Nations Championship will know that New Zealand is not a team that simply rolls over. They fight and never give up, even when the scoreboard sours. Even if the match starts slow with hardly any points in the first quarter, we would still bet on a high-scoring contest. The defences on both sides have been far too leaky for a shutout over the duration of a rugby match. We predict several scores and a Scotland win this Friday.
Scotland v New Zealand Scoring Profile
Points scored and conceded per match. Scotland: last 3 matches in all competitions; New Zealand: last 3 matches in all competitions.
Verified 03/11/2026.
Scotland v New Zealand Totals and Tries
How often each side's recent matches passed these marks.
| Total points line | Scotland | New Zealand | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 45.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 50.5 | 67% | 100% | 83% |
| 55.5 | 67% | 100% | 83% |
Last 3 matches in all competitions
Verified 03/11/2026.
Scotland v New Zealand Runs and Trends
Numbers that capture each club's current form.
Last 5 matches in all competitions
Verified 03/11/2026.
Nations Championship Fixtures
Round 4All times are Irish time
6 Friday November
v Argentina20:107 Saturday November
v South Africa11:40Preview
v 
Japan16:40
v Fiji20:10Preview8 Sunday November
v Australia15:10PreviewScotland v New Zealand Frequently Asked Questions
Scotland v New Zealand kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:10 (Ireland Time) at Murrayfield, in round 4 of the Nations Championship.
The fixture is live on Virgin Media One.
Our prediction leans towards Scotland, with our model making it 32-27 to the hosts. That gives Scotland a 56% chance of winning against 43% for New Zealand. Our value pick is Scotland +9.5, because both recent meetings were decided by eight points and New Zealand have lost three of their five away Tests this season.
Plenty. Our model expects 59 points, and all six recent matches across both sides went over 40.5. The last two meetings averaged 48 points, so Over 40.5 is our most confident bet on this game.
