Detroit Lions v New England Patriots Predictions, Betting Tips & H2H 15/11/2026

This week, our American football predictions favour the Detroit Lions beating the New England Patriots. We predict they will have too much quality for the Patriots to handle, with a final score of 25-20. The Lions are on a four-game winning streak, and our model gives them a 64% chance of victory on Sunday. 

NFL betting on the home side usually makes sense. Plus, when you consider that Detroit is 4-0 in front of their home fans, it feels like a no-brainer. Jared Goff has found form with 15 touchdowns and 2 interceptions across eight games. Jahmyr Gibbs has chipped in with an average of 105.9 rushing yards per game. The Lions’ running back will fancy adding to those impressive stats against New England.

The Patriots have been sloppy so far this season. They average 2.1 turnovers a game, something Detroit will punish heavily. That does not mean there is no way through the Lions. They concede 260.9 throwing yards a game and have failed to defend touchdowns 66.7% of the time opponents arrive inside the 20-yard line.

Handicap betting could be a clever bet if Detroit squeaks by. Before beating the Dolphins 19-9 last week, they beat the Vikings by four points and the Packers by three. Patriots +5.5 has a good chance of coming true in this fixture as they will look to bounce back from a humiliating defeat to Green Bay.

For the total points market, we like over 44.5. Our projected score is 45, so the margin is tight, but we fancy the over. The Lions have cleared over 44.5 points in 63% of their games this season. New England has also beaten this line 56% of the time. Betting on the over/under on this fixture is more appealing than the handicap.

This season, the Detroit Lions have been slow out of the blocks. They score 23 points in the first quarter but concede 38 on average. Compare that to Q2, and you have a different story, with 66-36. New England could take an early lead in this game, but betting on the Lions to claw ahead by halftime is a great in-play wager.

The head-to-head stats feel like a red herring in this match. The Lions last faced the Patriots in 2022, which does not offer a lot of value for sports betting fans. It ended 29-0 in favour of New England, but both teams have changed most of their squads since then.

Another factor to consider is the injury list. Detroit might have to do without D.J. Reed, Kerby Joseph, and Jack Campbell. New England has two doubts: Rhamondre Stevenson and A.J. Brown. Without Stevenson, our prediction gets worse for the visiting team. We predict the Detroit Lions will win by five points, but an injured New England could slump for 10+ points.