Seattle Seahawks v Chicago Bears Predictions, Betting Tips and H2H 03/11/2026

We lean towards a Seattle victory in our NFL predictions this week in a game of fine margins. Our model gives Seattle a 56% chance of winning, with a projected 27-25 scoreline. A two-point favourite is nearly as tight as it gets in American football, but we see the hosts as the victors on the day.

The Seahawks moneyline is attractive, but Chicago +2.5 in the handicap betting could offer greater returns. The case for Seattle starts on defence. Seattle allows just 233.9 yards a game and 4.0 yards per play, and opponents convert just 28% of their third downs. Chicago gives up 6.3 yards per play, which is a huge gap between two units on a snap-by-snap basis. 

Both offences sit level at 5.4 yards per play, so this looks like a game that will be won in defence. The Seahawks proved last week they can shut down this league's best offences. They kept the Kansas City Chiefs quiet at home, allowing just three points in a 20-3 win. Seattle has the best defence in the league so far this season for yards allowed, and that, paired with the home advantage, should take them over the line.

However, there will be question marks over the Sam Darnold vs Caleb Williams matchup. Darnold has thrown 8 interceptions in seven games, the worst return in the league. His 80.5 passer rating is miles behind Williams' 105.6. Williams has one interception from 124 attempts and completes 71% of his throws. If Darnold hands Chicago a short field, the Bears' running game and 35:30 average time of possession can squeeze the life out of the clock.

Sports betting fans will know there is a soft spot in that Seattle defence too, right on the goal line. Opponents have scored touchdowns on 78.6% of red-zone trips against the Seahawks. Chicago won't get inside the 20 often, but they cash in when they do, scoring touchdowns on 16 of their 30 trips. That is another reason not to back a big Seattle margin, and it matches how their season has gone, with every defeat by a field goal or less.

Getting to the goal line is the stumbling block. Seattle averages the fewest yards allowed in the NFL, making it difficult for opponents to sustain drives and consistently move the chains. Their third-down defence is particularly impressive, forcing Chicago into difficult situations and limiting the Bears' opportunities. 

Williams will need to be at his best to find a way through, especially against a Seattle pass rush that has shown it can disrupt even the strongest quarterbacks. Chicago have enough offensive quality to keep this competitive, but they will struggle to score consistently against this defence. We expect Seattle to edge a close contest, but Chicago +2.5 offers the insurance needed in what should be a one-score game. 

The sharpest live betting angle could come once the ball is in the air. Chicago start quickly, with 55 first-quarter points in seven games, but they have conceded 42 in fourth quarters while scoring only 30. Seattle does their work the other way, with 59 fourth-quarter points scored against 30 conceded. So if the Bears go in front early, Seattle's betting odds will drift, and backing the comeback would be the play.