Liverpool v Arsenal Prediction, Betting Tips and H2H 01/11/2026

One of our best Premier League predictions this week is for Arsenal to win at Anfield on Sunday. Our model makes the Gunners 43% favourites, with Liverpool 30% underdogs. Liverpool have been inconsistent so far this season, especially at home, and the numbers point to an Arsenal win for anyone betting on the Premier League.

The hosts enter on a five-game win streak, but in a run that has probably flattered them. They defeated Champions League minnows LASK Linz away from home but still shipped three goals in a 6-3 win. They also had to overturn a two-goal deficit to defeat a mediocre Villarreal side at Anfield. Their only convincing victory in those games was their most recent win against Brighton at home, Andoni Iraola’s first Anfield league victory since taking over in the Summer. The Kopites have scored 15 and conceded 8 in their previous five games, showing that they are outgunning teams rather than shutting them down.

But outgunning Arsenal will be a very tall task. Mikel Arteta’s side is averaging just 0.62 goals conceded per league game this season. Three wins from four on the road and 61% average possession point to a team that controls games rather than chases them. This resolute Arsenal defence is proving to be one of the best in the Premier League this century, and Liverpool will struggle to break them down.

The injury situation further strengthens Arsenal's position. Liverpool are without six players, including Hugo Ekitiké and Dominik Szoboszlai. The latter has been one of the best midfielders in the world this year. That leaves Alexander Isak with limited support in attack. Arsenal are also missing two key players: Bukayo Saka, their leading league scorer with three goals, and William Saliba. However, Gabriel and Ezri Konsa have helped maintain the defensive solidity, while Declan Rice's four assists show that Arsenal's creative threat does not depend on one player.

On over/under betting, we favour the under. Both teams have seen 50% of their league matches finish with over 2.5 goals, so that measure alone doesn’t separate them. However, Arsenal's defensive record makes the under a more appealing option. None of their league games has produced more than 3.5 goals, while just 25% have seen both teams score. The head-to-head record offers a slightly different picture, with both teams scoring in 60% of their last ten meetings and half of those matches ending in a draw. 

This also makes Liverpool +2 an attractive option in handicap betting. The selection covers a Liverpool win, a draw or an Arsenal victory by a single goal, making it a relatively safe way to account for the historical competitiveness of this fixture. Our predicted 0-1 scoreline also falls comfortably within that margin. Of the available betting odds, Arsenal or draw at 70% remains the most reliable selection.

Discipline is another factor worth considering for anyone interested in football betting. Liverpool average 2.4 yellow cards and 13.8 fouls per game, compared to Arsenal's 1.3 bookings and 10.3 fouls. With Liverpool likely to spend long periods without possession against an Arsenal side that dominates the ball, frustration could become a factor. Liverpool's tendency to commit more fouls and pick up more bookings makes them an interesting team to target in the card markets. If Arsenal control possession as expected, the pressure on Liverpool to win the ball back could lead to further disciplinary problems after the hour mark.