Connacht Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Preview
This week, there is another all-Ireland clash in the United Rugby Championship. Connacht welcomes Leinster to Galway for an important fixture. Kick-off is on Saturday, October 19, at 7:35 pm.
Both sides faced Irish opposition last week, with Leinster unsurprisingly coming out on top. They faced Munster at Croke Park and blew the Reds out of the water after 15 minutes. Connacht gave Ulster a cracking game and looked likely to win it, until a late red card to Josh Murphy. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure out who the favourite is in this game.
Connacht Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Predictions
Score Prediction: Connacht 22-30 Leinster
This fixture is on the verge of being a formality. We mean no disrespect to Connacht; they are a capable outfit with some fantastic players on their books. However, this Leinster side will take some serious stopping power, which Connacht doesn’t have. We think the hosts will make a decent game of it, but our rugby prediction is for Leinster to win by eight points or more.
Leinster is one of three URC teams to remain unbeaten. The other two teams are from South Africa, meaning they have played one game less than the Irish side. It has not been all smooth sailing for the Blues, they only beat Edinburgh by two points and did not have the best second half against Munster. However, if this is as bad as the problems get for Leinster, then they could be in for a more successful campaign than last year.
Connacht has picked up exactly where they left off compared to last year. They lost their final three matches against Munster, the Stormers, and Leinster and both defeats to their provincial rivals were by considerable margins. This year, they have closed the gap, only losing to Munster by two points instead of 35. But seeing as they failed to beat Ulster and Munster, they have little to no chance of defeating Leinster.
Betting on the United Rugby Championship has been a lot of fun this season as many teams have struggled more than expected. Leinster might be underperforming given the incredible talent on their books, but even their B team could give Connacht a run for their money. It is not a case of who will win this weekend, but by how much.
To give Connacht credit, they are a solid team with exceptional talent. If Bundee Aki shines in this match, we could have an instant classic on our hands. So far, they have only hosted one game in the URC against the Sharks, and they came out on top. For this fixture to go their way, they must weather the Leinster storm.
Leinster’s last match was at home against Munster. They blew the Reds out of the water in 15 minutes and never looked in danger of letting the lead slip. However, if Connacht can hold them off, they have a chance of taking something from this game. Betting on rugby union games involves an element of risk, and this week the risk could be rewarding.
Betting against Leinster is never a great idea, but not everything is rosy in Dublin. Discontent started when Leo Cullen’s side capitulated at the end of the last campaign. They led the URC and were favourites to lift the ERCC but ended up with neither. This time around, they need some silverware, or a new coach could be on the horizon.
Connacht Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Betting Tips
If you have been following the new season, the favourite to win this game won’t be a surprise. Our online bookmaker has Leinster as the clear favourite, and they are the most likely to win this game. However, that doesn’t mean there is a shortage of options. Below, we have a few Connacht vs Leinster betting tips.
Match Result
The league leaders are the most likely to win the match. Leinster (2/9) means a €10 bet on the visitors will only return €12.20. Less than three euros in profit from a ten-euro stake is not usually worth considering. However, this market will give you profit no matter the score, if Leinster comes out on top.
Betting on the home side is unlikely, but that makes it rewarding. Connacht (16/5) would give you €42 from the same stake. It is not often in rugby union for the home side to have such rewarding odds, but it highlights the near-impossible task they have this Saturday. A draw could be an option, but at 22/1 we predict your money would be better spent elsewhere.
Handicap
As we mentioned above, this game depends on Connacht’s defence. So far, they could not hold off teams like Ulster and the Dragons making this game against Leinster unlikely to be a low-scoring affair. Leinster -9.5 (22/25) is our pick as it almost doubles your money. All you need is for the visitors to outscore the hosts by ten points or more at the final whistle. You can increase your returns with Leinster -15.5 (2/1), but it comes with greater risk.
For handicap wagers, a plus symbol represents a head start. If you choose Connacht +9.5 (17/20) the hosts essentially start with ten points on Leinster. That means if they lose by eight points, your bet is still a winner. A ten-euro stake on this market would yield €18.50 and it pays if Connacht pull off a miracle and win by any margin.
Winning Margin
The winning margin is one of our favourite options for betting on rugby union matches. That is because this market offers fantastic value even when there is a clear favourite. Leinster to win by 8 to 14 points (12/5) would turn €10 into €34. You will struggle to find better returns across any market that involves the favourites winning. If your prediction for this rugby match is for a greater winning margin, Leinster to win by 15 points or more (6/4) offers €25 from the same stake.
We do not recommend betting on Connacht in this market. While there is every chance they can pull off a miracle, predicting the exact margin is not worth the additional risk. You can secure great returns just from an outright prediction. If you were determined to choose a margin for the hosts, Connacht to win by 1 to 7 (11/2) is your best option. That will give you €55 in profit from a €10 bet.
One last aspect to consider is live betting on this game. If you are looking to reduce risk, you can wait until kick-off before putting any money into this game. That is because you can wait until Leinster takes a clear lead before betting on the winning margin or any other market available at Novibet. Plus, any new player can claim a welcome bonus to use on any URC fixture across the weekend.
Connacht Rugby vs Leinster Rugby Key Stats and Head-To-Head
The last time these two Irish rivals faced off in the URC was in the final round of the regular season last year. Leinster had just crashed out of the ERCC at the hands of Toulouse and the league remained their only chance of silverware. They hosted Connacht in an incredibly one-sided match.
Leinster started the first half with a point to prove, destroying Connacht with less than 25 minutes played. Jack Conan scored the first try, closely followed by Jimmy O’Brien and Ciaran Frawley. The game went quiet until Michael Alaalatoa picked up a yellow card after an hour played. Dan Sheehan scored a fourth try for Leinster before the away side got their first points on the board. However, ten minutes later, Leinster added another score to wrap things up 33-7.
The last time Connacht hosted was in December 2023. It was a much closer game, even though the home side picked up two yellow cards. David Hawkshaw opened the scoring with a try inside ten minutes for Connacht. Cathal Forde went to the sin bin, but the men in Green extended their lead with a penalty. Charlie Ngatai got Leinster on the board just before halftime, entering the break 8-7.
https://twitter.com/leinsterrugby/status/1845807072379609400
Leinster capitalised on the Peter Dooley yellow card and scored two tries before the hour mark. An excellent ten minutes from Connacht saw them take the lead with two tries and ten minutes to play. It was 22-19 but a last-gasp try from Ciaran Frawley saved the day for Leinster. It crushed Connacht’s heart to lose the game so late on, but they put in a fantastic performance. Could we be in store for something similar this weekend?
If you want to bet on Connacht, they are winless in this fixture in their last nine attempts. While you could argue they are overdue a win, we are not sure this is the time. Instead, we prefer a safe bet on Leinster to win. If you want to increase your winnings, you can combine your pick with our Stormers vs Munster prediction.
Connacht Rugby Team News
Joe Joyce and Josh Ioane returned to action last week and we expect both players will retain their positions in the squad. Josh Murphy will not feature following his cynical red card against Ulster. There could be changes to the frontline considering last week’s performance.
Leinster Rugby Team News
Head coach Leo Cullen issued an update on the status of the injured players. Robbie Henshaw is now available for selection and should feature at some point this weekend. Jordan Larmour, Ryan Baird, and Lee Barron require further assessment from the medical team ahead of the Connacht clash. Rónan Kelleher, Joe McCarthy, and Jack Conan remain unavailable along with Tommy O’Brien, Jimmy, O’Brien, Paddy McCarthy, John McKee, and Dan Sheehan.
