Mayo vs Derry Preview
The National Football League is nearing its conclusion, and some fantastic games are coming up. Arguably, the most important match is Mayo vs Derry on Sunday, March 17, at 3:45 pm. It’s a vital fixture as Derry sits first in Division One by two points, ahead of Dublin, Mayo, and Kerry. Whoever loses this week could find themselves out of contention for the title.
Last week, Derry had their first slip of the season after suffering a home defeat in Dublin. The Dubs started the season slowly but outworked Derry by five points. Mayo suffered a surprise defeat in round four of the NFL after dropping points to Tyrone. They bounced back with a win against Roscommon, but the fixture against Derry will be vital. With two games left in the group stage, there is still everything to play for.
Mayo vs Derry Head-To-Head and Key Stats
This GAA fixture is uncommon, as Mayo vs Derry has only occurred a handful of times over the past ten years. The two sides have failed to progress far enough into the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship to face each other. Plus Derry has only recently secured promotion back into Division One of the NFL. Since 2015, the two teams have only faced off twice across these competitions.
The first meeting was in July 2017 in round two of the All-Ireland SFC at MacHale Park. It was a thrilling match, but Mayo won by 11 points after Derry crumbled in extra time. The match started with a scarcity of point-scoring chances in the opening minutes. With 20 on the clock, Derry had a one-point lead and nearly found an important goal. David Clarke stopped Carlus McWilliams’s shot, but it rebounded into the Derry man and hit the post. The first half finished Mayo 0-07 to 0-08 for Derry.
The second half had exciting exchanges, with Derry taking the lead and Mayo pegging them back. Mayo was one point behind, but they had a chance to take the lead. Andy Moran collected the ball brilliantly and fired a powerful shot across the goal. It slammed into the far post, and the goalkeeper saved the rebound. After that, Conor Loftus gave Mayo the lead with a thunderous strike to beat Ben McKinless, less than two minutes before the clock turned red. However, Derry thumped a hopeful ball into the box and Mark Lynch climbed highest to fist it into the Mayo net. It finished 1-12 apiece in normal time, but Derry ran out of steam. A poor kick by McKinless gave Mayo their second goal in extra time. Derry capped off a woeful extra-time performance by missing a penalty kick.
Looking further back, Derry vs Mayo was a prominent fixture in round four of the 2015 NFL season. It was another close game, but Mayo were victorious once again. The Yew County looked sharper in the first half, securing a 1-07 to 0-06 lead at halftime. The first goal came from Mark Ronaldson after a free in the 29th minute hit the post. Ronaldson was the first to react when Cillian O’Connor struck the woodwork. Derry fought back valiantly to get the score level, but Mayo had too much threat for the hosts to deal with. It finished 1-13 to 2-12 in favour of Mayo.
Derry has performed better than anyone could have possibly predicted this NFL season. However, they are in danger of all that hard work counting for nothing. Having lost to Dublin last week, Mayo, Kerry, and the Dubs are two points behind the Oak Leaf County with two games remaining. A defeat this week could take them out of the top two for the first time this season. Mayo dominated their last match against Roscommon, holding the away side to single figures across 70 minutes. While they only won by six points, they were never in danger of losing the game.
If you are looking into GAA betting this week, you have lots to consider. Derry has been the standout performer this season, but we are not over the line yet. Mayo has a recent history of beating the Oak Leaf County and they also have a lot to play for. If the home side lets more points slip at this late stage of the season, it could mark the end of their campaign for the National Football League title.
Mayo vs Derry Predictions
Prediction: Mayo 2-18 to 1-16 Derry
Watching Derry come from Division Two and challenge for the top spot of Division One has been excellent this year. However, the group stage is nearing its end, and we think the league leaders are running out of steam. We predict Mayo will edge this match by scoring two goals in the first hour. Derry won’t just roll over and will try to close the gap in the final ten minutes. The clock will be against them, and our GAA prediction sees the visitors losing by five points.
Betting on this Gaelic football match will be difficult. If you look at historical events, Mayo has been superior in recent years. However, the last meeting was in 2017, probably too long ago to draw any real conclusions. The Westerners have the advantage of playing at home, which is important as their only two defeats in the NFL have come away. Mayo has been consistent in this campaign, but is that enough this year?
However, Derry is first in the league for a reason. They won their opening four games in a row, scoring 89 points and conceding 69. They are level with Dublin for the best point difference in the league, showing they have been capable of attacking and defending their leads. Mayo has been less successful in scoring points, only managing 77 after four matches. To their credit, they have the best defence in the league and have only conceded 67 points in 2024.
These statistics favour Derry taking all the points up for grabs this weekend. However, that is not where we are going. This is a make-or-break week for Derry in the NFL. If they lose, they could be out of the race for a top-two finish. Having lost last week at home to Dublin, we think they will suffer consecutive defeats when they travel to Mayo. The Westerners are undefeated at home and have dominated Derry in previous meetings. We would bet on the home side this Sunday.
Our GAA prediction for this event accounts for Mayo taking a commanding lead and Derry being unable to close it down. But what happens if Derry starts the match with the advantage? This is where live betting comes into play, as you can wait until the game starts before placing your wager. If the away side builds a substantial lead in the first 30 minutes, betting on a Mayo comeback is risky. You will get poor returns if you back Derry when they are on top, so investigate the second-half betting options. Betting on Mayo to win the second half will be a sensible wager.
Mayo vs Derry Betting Tips
Checking the odds at the online sports betting site reveals there is a clear favourite for this matchup. Derry is the preferred choice this week, with odds of 4/7. Betting €10 on the away side has returns of €15.71, which is higher than we expected for a team on the road. Backing the hosts at 7/4 will turn your €10 into €27.50 if they can pull off an upset. We think a draw is unlikely, but at 15/2, crazier things have happened in the NFL.
For clarity, we are backing Mayo to get the win against Derry on Sunday, March 17. As much as we would like Derry to hold on to the top spot in Division One, the wobble against Dublin might have disastrous repercussions. Remember, Dublin was the underdog heading into that game and they came out swinging. There is a big difference between the Dubs and Mayo in terms of personnel, but the hosts have no choice. Betting on Mayo to defeat Derry is risky, but we predict it could be worthwhile.
📆 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗞𝗘𝗡𝗗
Derry return to NFL action, with the visit to Castlebar to face Mayo; whilst our Senior Hurlers complete their Division 2B league campaign at home to Roscommon. Fixture details below:
⚾️ 𝗡𝗛𝗟 𝗥𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝟱
🆚 Roscommon
🏟️ @laveygac
🗓️ Sunday March… pic.twitter.com/Npibc2uUl5— Derry GAA (@Doiregaa) March 12, 2024
If you disagree with our outright prediction on the underdogs, there is value to be had in Derry. Betting on the handicap market this week is viable, as Oak Leaf County has minus two points to overcome. With odds of 11/10, you can get double the profit betting on the handicap than on the full-time result. Derry must win by two points or more to make this wager a winner.
Another option this week is to predict which team will score first. Mayo might have the best defence in the league, but Derry has one of the best attacks. The hosts will step up first and score the opening goal. At 5/4, you can make €56.25 from a €25 wager if you choose this market. We think they will score three goals in this game, meaning there is plenty of scope for proposition bets.
Betting on Gaelic football this weekend will be exciting. Whatever happens after these fixtures will set us up beautifully for the final round of the group stage. Three points separate the top five, meaning we could be in for a grandstand finish. If this is your first week betting on the GAA, check out the Novibet welcome bonus. Could this be the perfect opportunity to claim a promotion and enjoy online sports betting before the National Football League final?
