UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro Predictions and Betting Tips

UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro Preview

UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro is set to deliver a stacked card filled with homegrown talent, rising contenders, and potential title implications across multiple divisions. The event marks the UFC’s return to Brazil, and fans inside the Jeunesse Arena can expect fireworks from start to finish.

The main card features big names like Charles Oliveira against Mateusz Gamrot and Deiveson Figueiredo continuing his bantamweight run versus Montel Jackson. Vicente Luque is looking to hold off the surging Joel Alvarez, and prospects Jhonata Diniz, Ricardo Ramos, and Lucas Almeida round things off. There is even more action when looking at the prelims, meaning this card is packed with storylines and betting value.

Charles Oliveria vs Mateusz Gamrot Predictions

Prediction: Charles Oliveira via decision

One of our best MMA predictions this week is for Charles Oliveira to win in Rio. The Brazilian has never lost in his home country, and Gamrot steps in on late notice after Rafael Fiziev pulled out following a knee injury. Gamrot opened as an underdog when he was announced, but has slowly overtaken “Do Bronxs” in the UFC betting. That is all the more reason to back Oliveira.

However, none of that is to discredit Gamrot. The Polish fighter is in the upper echelon of the division and can mix it up with striking alongside excellent grappling. He averages 5.33 takedowns per fight and will prove a worthy stand-in on Saturday night. 

The difference here is that he will be taking down arguably the greatest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in UFC history. Five seconds in Olivera’s guard is five seconds too long. Do Bronxs can find a submission from anywhere. That is why he is edging into the conversation of being one of the best UFC fighters of all time. The fact that he is a more powerful striker and remains undefeated in his home country leads us to believe he has this win in the bag. It may not be pretty, and it definitely won’t be easy, but we think Oliveira will make it seven UFC wins in Brazil by beating Gamrot on Saturday.

Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Odds

Charles Oliviera vs Mateusz Gamrot Betting Tips

Best Bet: Charles Oliveira to win

Simply put, Oliveria has more ways to win here. He is more powerful and arguably the greatest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in UFC history, boasting an incredible 21 submission victories. Furthermore, the edge goes to him if this fight goes the distance of five rounds. Gamrot won his last fight via decision, but looked gassed in round three and was forced to jab himself to the finish line. On two weeks’ notice against a legendary fighter like Oliveira, we struggle to see Gamrot living up to his status as the favourite. Bet on Oliveira to get the job done in Rio.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson Predictions

Prediction: Jackson via KO/TKO

Montel Jackson is coming into his prime, and one of our best UFC predictions is for the American to defeat Deiveson Figueiredo in Brazil. Quik is riding a six-fight win streak and has steadily improved with each outing. His physical advantages are glaring. He’ll have a six-inch reach advantage and a clear size edge over Figueiredo. Jackson uses them well, fighting tall and keeping opponents at the end of his jab. He carries serious power that can end a fight with one clean shot. Against a shorter, pressure-heavy fighter like Figueiredo, that could be the deciding factor.

Deiveson Figueiredo had a great start to life in the bantamweight division, defeating Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera very convincingly. However, things stalled when he was dominated by Petr Yan and lost via injury TKO to Cory Sandhagen. Truth be told, Sandhagen looked to be dominating that fight before the injury and would probably have won regardless.

That loss, combined with the damage Figueiredo has taken over the years, raises questions about how much he has left at the elite level. He is still incredibly dangerous, but his tendency to fade and his issues with larger, rangier opponents make this a very tricky matchup.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson Odds

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson Betting Tips

Best Bet: Montel Jackson via KO/TKO

Jackson’s reach, power, and control of distance give him the tools to neutralise Figueiredo’s aggression. The American fighter is a strong grappler, but should be able to avoid them given the size advantage. If Jackson can stay composed through the early storm, his straight punches and superior timing should find their mark as Figueiredo begins to slow.

The Brazilian’s durability has shown cracks in recent bouts, and Jackson’s clean, technical boxing makes him a nightmare opponent for an ageing brawler in a five-round fight. Expect Montel Jackson to weather some chaos early before landing a decisive combination. Bet on Jackson to secure a statement knockout victory in Rio.

Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez Predictions

Prediction: Joel Alvarez via submission

Vicente Luque has long been one of Brazil’s most respected veterans. However, time and damage may finally be catching up with him. While only a year Alvarez’s senior, Luque had 10 more fights than his Spanish opponent. He has been through countless wars, and his durability, once his calling card, has begun to fade.

Alvarez, meanwhile, is on the rise. The Spaniard is the taller, longer, and fresher fighter, and he’s entering his prime with a growing reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous submission specialists. He has added some incredible striking moves to his repertoire recently. 

Alvarez’s frame and grappling creativity make him a nightmare matchup for Luque. At 6’3”, he’ll enjoy a significant height and reach advantage. The Spaniard will use that to set up his clinch and grappling entries. On the mat, Alvarez is relentless, boasting 17 career wins via submission. On his feet, he has become equally dangerous, winning three of his last four via KO/TKO.

Luque’s takedown defence has always been strong, but his last few fights showed a decline in speed and reaction time, particularly against younger, longer opponents. If Alvarez can draw him into grappling exchanges, it could spell trouble for the veteran. Expect Alvarez to dictate the pace, avoid the big exchanges, and gradually drag the fight into his world on the canvas.

Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez Odds

Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez Betting Tips

Best Bet: Joel Alvarez via submission

This looks like a fight that Joel Alvarez should win any way he pleases. However, Luque’s power must be respected. For that reason, we expect the Spanish fighter to play it smart and drag Luque to the mat for a finish. His youth, reach, and grappling edge make him the clear favourite with our online bookmaker.

Luque’s toughness will keep him in it early, but the Spaniard’s pace and opportunistic submissions should take over once the fight hits the mat. Bet on Alvarez to secure another finish and continue his climb toward the top of the lightweight division.

UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro Main Card

With UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro fast approaching, let’s take a look at the matchups on this week’s main card. You can bet on each fight once you become a member at our sportsbook.

• Lightweight: Charles Oliveira v Mateusz Gamrot
• Bantamweight: Deiveson Figueiredo v Montel Jackson
• Welterweight: Vicente Luque v Joel Alvarez
• Heavyweight: Jhonata Diniz v Mario Pinto
• Featherweight: Ricardo Ramos v Kaan Ofli
• Featherweight: Lucas Almeida v Michael Aswell