Ulster Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Preview
There are several big fixtures this week in the URC, but our focus is on Ulster vs Connacht. Kick-off is at 8:00 pm on Saturday, October 12th, 2024. The match takes place in Northern Ireland, and both teams will fancy their chances this weekend.
Connacht started the season with a narrow two-point opening day defeat to provincial rivals Munster. Since then, they have won against the Sharks and Scarlets. Ulster faced a much tougher start to the season. They beat Glasgow by one point in week one but lost to the Lions and Bulls on a South African tour. Ulster needs this win in front of the home fans on Saturday.
Ulster Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Predictions
Score Prediction: Ulster 24-21 Connacht
Connacht has been better this season, but they have enjoyed an easier run. Ulster struggled more than expected on their South African tour, but those results can happen to anyone. This week our rugby prediction is for the Northern Irish side to bounce back and secure a 24-21 win in front of the home fans in Belfast.
Connacht might have more wins than Ulster, but they have been far from clinical. They have conceded 88 points across three games. This is especially worrying when you consider they let in 30 against the Sharks and only beat the Scarlets by one. The Irish side might have over double the number of points compared to Ulster in the URC, but we expect a swift recovery.
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Last weekend, the Blue Bulls’ creativity was too much for Ulster to handle. While this was a hard watch for loyal fans, there were moments of brilliance from the men in white. They penetrated the stubborn South African defence three times with some solid attacking displays. If they can tighten up at the back against a weaker side in Connacht, a win is likely this weekend.
Betting on a URC fixture this weekend will be tough as teams have finally found their feet this season. Connacht has won both matches in the past two weeks. However, this test at Ravenhill will be their most difficult since the opening-day defeat to Munster. That game had only two points between the sides, and we expect something similar this Saturday.
Although you can take positives from the Ulster performance in South Africa, they lost both fixtures because of poor defending. The defeat against the Bulls you can accept as they look almost impossible to contain, but the Emirates Lions match should have been closer. If Connacht can hit Ulster on the front foot as the South African sides did, they have a chance to open a wide lead before the home side can respond.
Anyone betting on this rugby match should consider the fans. The last time these two sides faced off was in December 2023 and one point separated them. Ulster beat Connacht 20-19 in the Kingspan Stadium, and we predict the hosts will win by a similar amount this time around.
Both sides are only three games into the new season, meaning there is not a lot of data to go off. If you were just looking at form, the momentum is with the team in Green. Ulster might have lost against the Bulls, but most teams would have suffered in South Africa. We expect a much stronger performance now that they are back on home turf. Connacht has the personnel to cause issues but lacks consistency against all three provincial rivals.
Ulster Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Betting Tips
If you are a fan of sports betting, then our platform is not to be missed. We have dozens of exciting markets for this match. To help you make a winning wager this weekend, we have listed the best bets below.
Match Result
Looking at the odds available at Novibet, there is a clear favourite heading into this clash. Ulster Rugby (4/7) is the most likely option, and it corresponds with our prediction. A straightforward €10 wager on the hosts would return €15.70. That means you stand to make just under six euros in profit, which is not bad when you consider they are the hosts.
Betting on Connacht is an option if you think they can continue their winning streak. Connacht Rugby (6/4) is a decent wager as you stand to make one and a half times the value of your bet in profit. A draw is rare in the United Rugby Championship, but at 18/1 it’s not as crazy as you might think. In the past two meetings between these clubs, there have been two points or fewer between the sides. A draw could be a fair compromise given Ulster’s slow start to the campaign.
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Handicap
Choosing a handicap wager this week could be a good move based on how close the teams have been in recent meetings. Ulster Rugby -3.5 (22/25) is our pick for this market, but it requires the hosts to win by four points or more. Betting €10 will give you €18.80 if the hosts can pull it off. You can bet on Ulster +2.5 (4/11) but that will return €3.60 in profit.
Choosing Connacht +3.5 (17/20) will give you almost identical returns compared to the reverse market for the hosts. A ten-euro wager will give you €8.50 in profit if the boys in Green can pull off an upset. You can investigate different options, but the higher the handicap for Connacht, the smaller the returns. Choosing Connacht -2.5 (2/1) is risky as it requires the visitors to win by three points or more.
Winning Margin
This week, one of the best value-for-money wagers is the winning margin. At our online sportsbook, you can secure Ulster to win by 1 to 7 points (12/5), which would give you €34 from a ten-euro bet. The last time Ulster hosted Connacht, they won by a single point, which would make this wager significantly more rewarding than an outright prediction. If you think there will be a wider margin at full-time, the Ulster 8 to 14 (16/5) is an even more rewarding option.
If you back Connacht to secure a result in Ravenhill, they will probably do so by less than eight points. Connacht to win by 1 to 7 points (16/5) is a fantastic wager. You stand to make €42 from this bet if you stake €10, making it a risky option. We think if one side were to win this match, it would be by a small amount. There should be little to separate these teams after 80 minutes of play.
Live Betting
If you are going to bet on a rugby match, waiting until the game begins is often the way to go. That is because you can watch as the action unfolds before putting your money on the line. Live betting in this match could be profitable if you time your bets. If the visitors take the lead, a wager on Ulster will return even more if they make a comeback. If you are unsure, wait and see how things stand on the day.
Ulster Rugby vs Connacht Rugby Key Stats and Head-To-Head
Ulster vs Connacht last took place in December 2023. It was a topsy-turvy game. It started with immediate pressure on the visitors as Ulster bullied their way over the line with less than two minutes played.
Connacht hit back immediately with a try of their own, thanks to Bundee Aki. They missed an opportunity to take the lead shortly after as Shayne Bolton chased down a kick and touched it down. However, the TMO intervened and decided not to award the try.
Ulster was fortunate, but they capitalised on the momentum, scoring a try immediately after. The first half finished 14-7 and an early second-half penalty to the hosts allowed them to extend the lead. Shamus Hurley-Langton bullied the ball over the line with a powerful solo run to reduce the gap to five.
A further penalty to Ulster gave them an eight-point lead to hold. They defended well, but a brilliant try from Shayne Bolton got the visitors within a point with ten minutes to play. The final minutes trickled down and Ulster did enough to hold on to the win.
This will be a close game if the past two matches are anything to go by. Two points separated the sides when Connacht last hosted in November 2023 and one point was the difference last time out. We expect the home advantage to be enough to see Ulster over the line, but anything can happen on the day. Connacht has won two in a row, which is no coincidence. They did enough to win those games, even with moments of sloppy defending.
This fixture will be a story of offensive capabilities. Neither side has been particularly good at stopping tries this season, and that will not change on Saturday. Yes, there will be fewer points on the board as these local rivals will avoid making silly mistakes. But Ulster would have to collapse spectacularly for Connacht to win on the road.
Ulster Rugby Team News
Head coach Richie Murphy made nine changes between games in the South African tour. The changes were unsuccessful as it was far too easy for the Bulls to break the lines. We predict Murphy will make more tweaks to control the game in front of the home fans. He will have to dig deep and find a way to stop his son, the scrum-half for Connacht.
Connacht Rugby Team News
Richie Murphy’s son Ben Murphy offers Connacht stability. The young number 9 has been impressive so far this season with three tries. Mack Hansen has played in all three games this season and will fancy his chances against Ulster. Bundee Aki and Jack Carty returned last week and should also feature in this match.
