Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev Preview
Alex Pereira will attempt to defend his UFC light-heavyweight title for a fourth time when he faces Magomed Ankalaev. The pair will go head-to-head at UFC 313 in the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, on March 9th, 2025. This will be a fascinating clash between the UFC’s biggest active superstar and his most credible contender.
The promotion has tried to avoid making this match-up for as long as possible. However, now they’ll finally give Ankalaev his shot at glory. Pereira enters this fight as a slight favourite, but the odds are very close. Many people believe Ankalaev will be the one to derail the Poatan hype train, but Pereira thinks he’ll knock him out.
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev Key Stats and Head-to-Head
Pereira is one of the most exciting combat sports athletes on the planet. The former GLORY kickboxing champion is the only fighter in history to win the UFC middleweight and light-heavyweight straps. He also holds the record for achieving three consecutive title defences in the shortest time.
The UFC top brass loves him because he fights at short notice and is entertaining. He has won five Performance of the Night bonuses, including a Fight of the Night in his last bout against Khalil Rountree Jr. Meanwhile, Pereira has won over five former UFC champions, including Israel Adesanya, Jiří Procházka, and Jan Błachowicz.
Pereira currently has a 12-2 record with 10 knockout victories. He won his previous four matches by KO/TKO, including his round four victories over Rountree Jr. last October. That was a controversial match-up because many people thought the UFC was protecting him from Ankalaev. It was an entertaining bout, but Pereira broke him down and finished him.
It’s fair to say that the UFC did their best to avoid giving Ankalaev this title shot. A typical Dagestani wrestler, he has a 19-1-1-1 record. Ten of his victories were finishes, while he has nine decision wins. His only defeat came against Paul Craig in 2018. Since then, he’s gone on a 13-fight unbeaten run, including one draw against Jan Błachowicz and a no-contest against Johnny Walker.
The UFC had concerns about Ankalaev’s visa issues, which made it complicated for him to fight in the US. They don’t think he has a fan-friendly style. The fear is that he’ll hold Pereira down for five rounds and the UFC will lose their most marketable active star. However, they’re reluctantly taking that risk because there’s no other viable contender.
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev Predictions
Fight Prediction: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO
The odds are extremely close for this fight on our sports betting site. Most analysts agree that there are two ways that it will go. Pereira will probably either win by KO/TKO or Ankalaev will secure a frustrating decision victory. Our MMA prediction is that Poatan will succeed in his fourth consecutive title defence.
We don’t trust Ankalaev’s fight IQ in this match-up. The Russian previously said that he would stand and bang with the champion. This would be an incredible miscalculation because Pereira is one of the greatest strikers in UFC history. Ankalaev has decent hands, but it’s a recipe for disaster if he tries to outstrike the Brazilian.
Pereira could win this fight early because we don’t think Ankalaev will immediately wrestle. He’s not Khabib Nurmagomedov or Islam Makachev. Yes, he’s a decent wrestler by the low standards of the 205 lb division, but he’s not as good as his countrymen. However, he has a better chance if he tries to wrestle from the first bell.
That’s why experts are calling this Pereira’s most dangerous match-up. There are concerns about the Brazilian’s takedown defence. We saw Jan Błachowicz achieve success against him in their title fight. However, Pereira has incredible experience in his corner in Glover Teixeira. The former UFC champion was one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division’s history. We believe he’ll prepare his fighter well.
Ankalaev has a better chance of success if he keeps this fight on the ground. However, watch out for Pereira’s left hook and his uppercut. We predict that he’ll knock Ankalaev down as he attempts to enter and secure the finish from there. Ankalaev doesn’t have the best striking defence in the world, so Pereira can exploit this.
The last time Alex Pereira fought in the octagon pic.twitter.com/fQPgvdrRkD
— Rengoku (@RengokuMMA_) March 4, 2025
The Russians’ best chance of a finish is if he gets Pereira down and then unleashes ground-and-pound. Pereira must work on getting back to his feet as quickly as possible. He can’t accept the position or go for a guillotine because it will end badly. We believe his coach, Teixeira, will focus on stand-ups and landing elbows in grappling exchanges.
Don’t forget to check out the live betting markets during this fight. If Ankalaev struggles to take Pereira down, the odds may drastically shift. In this case, pick the champion to win by KO. Meanwhile, it may be safer to back Ankalaev if he dominates the first round with his wrestling, even if the odds are slightly less profitable.
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev Betting Tips
There isn’t much between these men in our online sportsbook. Pereira is the slightest of favourites at 3/4. This means that a successful €10 stake would make €7.50. Betting on Pereira could be tempting because of his recent run. He’s only getting better, but he’s facing a hungry contender in Ankalaev.
It’s 20/21 for Ankalaev to achieve UFC gold. Some punters will see this as better value than an outright bet on Pereira. This time, a €10 wager would make €9.52. Ankalaev represents a genuine threat and a new style match-up for Pereira. These are excellent odds because he has a real chance of winning.
If you’re backing Pereira, we advise selecting the method of victory instead of backing him to win outright. We believe if he wins, he will finish Ankalaev by KO/TKO. It’s 13/10 for him to knock out the Russian contender. We don’t see him winning a decision, so this seems the best option.
Alternatively, you could back Ankalaev to win by decision at 10/3. €10 would deliver €33.33 if he wins by this method. Unfortunately, this means it will probably be a boring fight, but it seems like the most realistic. However, he could find himself in the crucifix position and unleash ground-and-pound. It’s the same odds for him to finish Pereira.
The oddsmakers don’t think either man will win by submission. Neither man has a submission victory on their record, but both suffered one loss by this method. A €10 bet on Ankalaev to choke or tap out Pereira would make €85 at 17/2, so it could be tempting. We’d avoid this MMA market because there are better options.
An over-under bet on the number of total rounds could make a decent prop bet. We think Pereira will finish the job before 2.5 rounds, which is worth 11/10 at Novibet. However, it’s 7/10 for the fight to go under 3.5 rounds, which seems like excellent value. Meanwhile, the oddsmakers think Pereira is most likely to achieve a first-round finish at 6/1.
You can be even more specific by choosing the method of victory and the round. It’s 13/2 for Pereira to win by KO/TKO in Round One, which is a good pick. A €10 stake on this would make €65.
You can bet on the UFC this weekend as the undercard has several fights. Justin Gaethje faces Rafael Fiziev in an exciting rematch. ‘The Highlight’ is coming off a brutal knockout loss, but Fiziev took this fight on short notice. Despite this, ‘Ataman’ is a favourite, even though he lost their first meeting. You can bet on Gaethje or create an accumulator with the best match-ups.
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev Outcome
The UFC doesn’t want Ankalaev to win this match, but it could solve a few problems. A new champion would open up the division and create fresh, exciting match-ups. The problem is that Pereira has almost cleared out the division, and Ankalaev is the last man standing.
Poatan could demand an immediate rematch if he loses, but that will be hard to justify if Ankalaev dominates him. A Pereira victory could see a rematch with Jan Błachowicz, or perhaps the No. 6-ranked Carlos Ulberg. These aren’t the most interesting options, but there aren’t many to choose from.
The most exciting prospect would be Pereira moving up to heavyweight to fight Jon Jones or Tom Aspinall. A clash with the latter could be feasible while ‘Bones’ plays hardball with the UFC. Pereira would be an underdog, but he’d be chasing history, and it would be box office viewing. If he wins, this is the next fight to make.
