Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Preview
Merab Dvalishvili will attempt to defend his bantamweight title for the first time when he faces Umar Nurmagomedov on January 19th in Inglewood, California. The main card is set to kick off at 3:00 am, but it could be earlier if we see knockouts in the prelims.
Dvalishvili enters this bout after an incredible showing in his title fight with Sean O’Malley. Umar is undefeated and looks to carry on his lineage with yet another UFC title for the Nurmagomedovs. Can the Young Eagle live up to the hype and crown himself the 135lb king, or will Dvalishvili show that experience is key at the top of the mountain?
Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Predictions
Fight prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov by decision
Merab Dvalishvili had a long journey to the UFC Bantamweight championship. The Georgian waited seven years for his title shot but made the most of his opportunity. He dominated Sean O’Malley most of their meeting at UFC 306 to walk out with the belt. However, The Machine could be looking at a brief reign as the 135lb champ.
Umar Nurmagomedov has torn through every opponent put in his path. The undefeated Dagestani, cousin of legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov, comes out of the Eagles MMA camp. They have produced two UFC world champions, including current lightweight champ Islam Makhachev, and the reigning Bellator lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov. Our MMA prediction is for Umar to be crowned champion at the Intuit dome.
Dvalishvili is an excellent wrestler and has arguably the best gas tank in the UFC. However, Umar is just as adept on the ground. Some would argue that he is perhaps better. The difference lies in their approaches. Dvalishvili is highly conditioned and looks to dump his opponents over and over rather than hold them down. Umar, like his teammates Khabib and Islam, is a pressure wrestler who will suffocate and wear them down on top if he doesn’t take their back.
On paper, that looks like an immovable object meeting an unstoppable force. This is where Umar’s stand-up comes in. He has the edge over Merab. His speed and power outweigh the champs. The Young Eagle has a better variety of techniques, mixing in kicks with his powerful punches. That can be dangerous against a wrestler like Merab, who will look to snatch flailing legs, but Umar’s speed should nullify this. It is also worth noting that Nurmagomedov has a 100% takedown defence, though he has never stepped across from a fighter with the wrestling acumen of Dvalishvili.
A big factor in this fight is who will dictate the pace. Both men look to push forward and Merab doesn’t mind getting hit. However, Umar can win grappling exchanges where most of the champion’s former opponents could not. That will give the challenger confidence to push forward and fight in Dvalishvili’s face more than he is used to.
While Umar is our pick to win this fight, this is more of a chess match than his previous fights. We won’t see a dominating performance like we did in the Cory Sandhagen fight. Merab’s cardio and conditioning cannot be understated. His ability to keep coming forward is unlike anyone in the division, and he has an iron chin.
Umar will have fewer opportunities to initiate than he has in previous fights. If he can find a way to disrupt Merab’s rhythm, he can begin to take control. However, he must be prepared to wrestle from the bottom more often than before.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Fight Outcome
It is hard to pick who will dictate the pace here, with both men fighting with pressure. However, Umar’s striking edge gives him a clear path to work Merab down: low kicks. He will probably employ kicks to the legs early on to keep Merab from coming forward. The Young Eagle uses kicks excellently to stay out of range. He will have to be careful in preventing Merab from grabbing at his legs from body kicks, but cutting away with calf kicks will keep him guessing.
Once again, Merab is a cardio machine. He will keep going to the well, looking to dump the challenger. He averages an incredible six takedowns per 15 minutes. However, Umar has excellent takedown defence and can win grappling exchanges. His chain wrestling is exactly what we have come to expect from Dagestani fighters. Nurmagomedov will roll with whatever Merab throws at him and win the exchanges on the feet on his way to victory.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Betting Tips
Umar Nurmagomedov is the odds-on favourite for this fight. He has not lost a fight in his career. The Young Eagle looks destined to follow in the footsteps of Makhachev and Khabib in claiming UFC gold. A bet on Umar Nurmagomedov to win is worth 3/10. However, that doesn’t show great value with a €10 stake returning just €3.
There is more value in betting on the method of victory. Umar has won half his career fights by decision, including three of his previous four. Merab has never been knocked out and had just one submission defeat seven years ago. Anyone betting on MMA should back Nurmagomedov to win via decision, which is worth 9/10.
If you think Dvalishvili can cause an upset and defend his belt, you can bet on him at 12/5 with our online bookmaker.
Takedowns
Dvalishvili is a formidable wrestler, which makes UFC betting tricky this week. His average of six takedowns per 15 minutes is incredible, and he holds the record for the most takedowns landed in UFC Bantamweight division history (72). He is second all-time for takedowns landed in UFC history. Nurmagomedov has excellent takedown defence, but this is the best wrestler he has fought. Bet on Dvalishvili to land over 2.5 takedowns in the fight, worth 57/100.
Significant Strikes
Umar Nurmagomedov is a very active striker averaging around 111 in five-round fights. His speed and range of striking will be too much for Merab. We like a bet on the challenger to land over 92.5 significant strikes, worth 10/11.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Merab Dvalishvili had a long road to the top of the UFC mountain. The Georgian made his debut in the promotion in 2017. It was a rough start for the Machine in the biggest MMA promotion in the world. He lost his first two fights, a split decision to Frankie Saenz and a submission via guillotine choke to Ricky Simon. He returned to the octagon in September 2018, knowing another loss would likely see him cut. From there, he started one of the longest winning streaks in UFC history.
Merab defeated Terrion Ware and has not lost a fight to date. His resume includes wins over legends like Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo. Those wins came in successive fights, earning him a title shot against Sean O’Malley. A dominating performance gave him a unanimous decision victory as he took home the gold seven years after making his debut.
Standing at 5’6” with a 68” reach, Merab will give up an inch in reach and two inches in height. He is an excellent wrestler with a black belt in jiu-jitsu, boasting former champions like Matt Serra and Aljamain Sterling in his corner. His cardio is arguably the best in the UFC and he also has a strong stand-up game. Merab enters this fight with a record of 18-4 (3 KO, 1 SUB, 14 DEC). Three of his losses have come via decision and one by technical submission.
Umar Nurmagomedov made his UFC debut in 2021 after strong appearances in the PFL and in Russia. He burst onto the scene with a second-round technical submission against Sergey Morozov, following up with another submission win against Brian Kelleher in March 2022. With cousin Khabib in his corner, Umar has gone from strength to strength since and began to establish himself as one of the most dangerous men in the bantamweight division.
After five wins in a row, it was time for Umar to step up. He faced perennial contender and top 10-ranked Cory Sandhagen in a title eliminator in August last year. Umar dominated Sandhagen, with one judge awarding him all five rounds. He enters this fight on the back of six straight victories in the UFC.
Nurmagomedov stands at 5’8” with a 69” reach. Training out of Eagle MMA in Dagestan, he has excellent grappling skills and strength on the ground. However, the Young Eagle is more of a striker than his teammates. He has impressed fans with his expansive technique. Umar is undefeated in his career with an 18-0 record (2 KO, 7 SUB, 9 DEC).